8 - Hormones and Stroke Prevention

Editors: Norris, John W.; Hachinski, Vladimir

Title: Stroke Prevention, 1st Edition

Copyright 2001 Oxford University Press

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8

Hormones and Stroke Prevention

Diana B. Petitti

The belief that use of estrogenic hormones by postmenopausal women prevents coronary artery disease is widespread. It is often assumed that if hormone replacement therapy prevents coronary disease, it will prevent stroke.

Sex differences in stroke incidence and mortality, studies of estrogen experimental stroke in animals, and studies of the effects exogenous hormones on the mediators of stroke provide information pertinent to this issue. Data on these topics, as well data from randomized trials and observational epidemiology, are reviewed in this chapter. Although epidemiologic studies show that use of combined estrogen/progestin oral contraceptives does not prevent stroke and probably increases the risk of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke in some women, the chapter also reviews recent information on this topic.

Stroke Incidence and Mortality in Men and Women

The incidence of stroke is higher in men than women.1,2 Figure 8.1, which summarizes data on stroke incidence from the WHO MONICA study, 1 shows that this is true throughout the world. Table 8.1 shows that stroke mortality is also higher in men than women, at least up to age 85. While the data this table are from the United States, they consistent with data other settings.

FIGURE 8.1. Age-standardized stroke incidence rates in men and women by country, WHO Monica Project. Source:

Thorvaldsen et al. Stroke incidence, case fatality, and mortality in the WHO Monica Project. Stroke 1995;26:361 367

. Rates from multiple sites in one country were averaged

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Higher rates of cigarette smoking or diabetes, more poorly controlled blood pressure, or other lifestyle factors could explain the difference in stroke incidence and mortality between men and women. However, the fact that relationship between male sex and a higher stroke risk (or female lower stroke risk) holds in so many different geographic settings suggests that sex differences endogenous hormones may be responsible for at least some of the difference.

TABLE 8.1. Stroke Mortality Rate/100,000 for Men and Women in the United States by Race and Age

 AGE WHITE BLACK
Men Women Men Women
0 34     0.9     0.8      2.0     2.4
35 44     5.1     4.4    25.1   17.0
45 54   15.0   13.3    67.3   44.6
55 64   47.9    35.8  136.5  100.2
65 74 153.4   118.6  303.6  249.7
75 84 558.3   482.9   720.1  705.5
85 + 1578.0 1705.7 1343.2 1428.1
Source: Stroke 1980 1989. National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, 1994.

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Animal Studies of Estrogen and Stroke Outcome

Young adult female rats and gerbils have lower mortality less cerebral ischemia than males after experimental occlusion of the cerebral arteries that produces stroke. 3,4 The protection against experimental ischemic brain injury disappears after reproductive senescence in middle-aged female rats. 5 Ovariectomy young female rats increases infarct size after experimental cerebral occlusion, 6 and administration of exogenous estradiol decreases ischemic injury in both old and young animals, 5,6,7 with a therapeutic window of three hours. 7 The mechanism of protection from injury was found to be independent blood flow in two different experiments.5,7 This line of research raises the tantalizing possibility that exogenous estrogen might prevent death and disability after stroke, even if estrogen does not decrease the incidence of stroke.

Effects of Exogenous Estrogen and Estrogen/Progestin Combinations on the Mediators of Stroke

The mechanisms of stroke are not completely understood. Glucose metabolism, blood pressure, coagulation and fibrinolysis, the interaction of platelets the endothelium, and the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system all may play a role in the development of stroke. Some these factors may also modify extent of damage following stroke. Lipid levels may affect stroke risk directly or indirectly through their effects on coagulability and platelet function.

For both stroke and coronary disease, the distinctions between atherogenesis and thrombosis are being replaced by integrated models of vascular function. The complexity of the mechanisms stroke and the incompleteness our understanding of stroke pathogenesis complicate the interpretation information on the effect of exogenous hormones on factors that mediate stroke.

Estrogen and Estrogen/Progestin Combinations in Postmenopausal Women

The literature on the effect of exogenous estrogen and estrogen/progestin combinations on potential mediators of stroke in postmenopausal women is vast. Table 8.2 summarizes five recent particularly well-conducted studies of this topic.8,9,10,11,12

Postmenopausal estrogen and estrogen/progestin combinations decrease fasting serum glucose and insulin levels do not affect blood pressure. Studies are consistent in showing a favorable effect of the combined estrogen/progestin therapies currently in widespread use on levels of total cholesterol and highdensity and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, but they increase triglycerides. The effect of combined therapy on lipids is generally less than that estrogen alone. That is, the combination therapies are generally more lipid neutral than estrogen alone.

TABLE 8.2. Effects of Postmenopausal Estrogen and Estrogen/Progestin Combinations on Proven and Possible Mediators of Stroke Risk

MEDIATOR ESTROGEN ALONE ESTROGEN PLUS MPA1 REFERENCE(S)
Insulin2 8,9,10
Glucose2 8,9
Blood pressure No effect No effect 8,9
Triglyceride 8,9,10
LDL-cholesterol 8,9,10,11
HDL-cholesterol No effect 8,9,10,11
Lp(a) 9,10
Fibrinogen 8,9,11
Fibrinopeptide A ? 12
F1+23 ? 12
D-dimer (?) No effect 10
Plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 10
Factor VII, % activity No effect 9,11
Factor VIII, % No effect No effect 9
Antithrombin III No effect 9,12
Protein C No effect 9,12
Protein S ? 12
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, effect is on level of the mediator.
1MPA = medroxyprogesterone acetate.
2Fasting.
3Marker of factor Xa action on prothrombin.

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The effects of postmenopausal estrogen and estrogen/progestin combinations on factors that affect coagulation and measures of fibrinolysis are complex. Summarizing the data, estrogens, and probably also postmenopausal estrogen/progestin combinations, enhance both coagulability and fibrinolysis.

Considering these effects, postmenopausal estrogen and estrogen/progestin combinations might be predicted to increase, decrease, or have no effect on the occurrence of stroke. The net effect of estrogens and estrogen/progestin combinations might be different for ischemic than for hemorrhagic stroke. That is, the data on the effects of postmenopausal hormones mediators stroke are compatible with any observed effect on stroke incidence, and they are compatible with effects on the incidence of hemorrhagic stroke that are different from those on ischemic stroke.

Estrogen/Progestin Combinations as Oral Contraceptives

The literature on the effects of oral contraceptives potential mediators of stroke risk in postmenopausal women is also vast. Table 8.3 summarizes the conclusions

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of three recent reviews the effects low-dose (less than 50 micrograms of ethinyl estradiol) combined estrogen/progestin and progestin-only oral contraceptives on various mediators of stroke risk.13,14,15 As with postmenopausal hormone replacement therapy, these data are compatible with any observed effect of combined estrogen/progestin oral contraceptives on stroke incidence and with effects on the incidence of hemorrhagic stroke that are different from those ischemic stroke.

TABLE 8.3. Effects of Combined Low Estrogen Dose (<50 Micrograms) Oral Contraceptives on Proven and Possible Mediators of Stroke Risk Whether the Type of Progestin Modifies the Effect (adapted from refs. 13,14,15)

MEDIATOR OVERALL PROGESTIN MODIFIES
Insulin1 No effect Yes
Glucose1 No effect Yes
Insulin resistance Yes
Blood pressure Yes
Triglyceride Yes
LDL-cholesterol No effect Yes
HDL-cholesterol , No effect, Yes, large differences
Lp(a) No effect No
Fibrinogen No effect No
Plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 No
Factor VII, % activity ?
Factor VIII, % No
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, effect is on level of the mediator.
1Fasting.

For oral contraceptives, much attention has been paid to their effects on factors that predispose to venous thromboembolic disease. These data are also difficult to interpret, although there is an emerging consensus that combined estrogen/progestin oral contraceptives may cause thromboembolism in women with resistance to activated protein C, a hereditary thrombophilia, and perhaps in women with other inherited thrombophilias. Winkler15 discusses in detail the data on thrombophilia and oral contraceptives the many theories about why they increase the risk of venous thrombosis.

Hormone Replacement and Carotid Thickness

The Cardiovascular Health Study11 reported on the results of a cross-sectional analysis of ultrasound assessment carotid artery thickness and percent stenosis in relation to postmenopausal hormone use. The study involved 2955 women 65 or more years of age at the time the ultrasound assessment at entry to study. Of these women, 356 were current users of estrogen or estrogen/progestin

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and an additional 784 had used postmenopausal hormones prior to examination. The near and far wall maximal intimal-medial thickness of the carotid arteries and the percent of carotid stenosis were assessed using duplex ultrasonography.

TABLE 8.4. Ultrasound Assessment of Carotid Intimal-Medial Thickness and Percent Carotid Stenosis in Estrogen Users and Nonusers in the Cardiovascular Health Study (ref 11)

  ESTROGEN USE
CURRENT PAST NEVER
Common carotid thickness, mm 0.94 0.97 0.981
Internal carotid thickness, mm 1.25 1.41 1.421
Percentage with carotid stenosis 50% 1.8 4.5 5.81
Source: Manolio, Furberg, Shenanski, et al. Associations of postmenopausal estrogen use with cardiovascular disease and its risk factors in older women. Circulation, 1993:88:2163 2171.
1p < 0.05 comparing current users with never plus past users.

Table 8.4 summarizes the results of this cross-sectional analysis. Common and internal carotid thicknesses were both statistically significantly less in current hormone users than in noncurrent users. The percentage of current hormone users with 50% or more stenosis of the carotid artery (1.8%) was significantly less than in noncurrent users (5.6%). The association of current estrogen use with a thinner common carotid wall persisted after adjustment for age, hysterectomy, race, income, smoking, fasting glucose, factor VII, and use of lipid-lowering medication. The association of current estrogen use with a thinner carotid artery wall was attenuated by further adjustment for high-density and low-density lipopro-tein cholesterol levels. The authors interpreted this as evidence that the benefits of hormone replacement act through their effects on lipid levels.

Randomized Trials of Postmenopausal Hormone Replacement Therapy

The Hormone Estrogen/Progestin Replacement Study (HERS) was a randomized, blinded, placebo-controlled study that involved 2763 postmenopausal women with coronary disease that was specifically designed to assess the effect of hormone replacement therapy on cardiovascular disease endpoints. 16 Women were assigned to placebo or to 0.625 milligrams of conjugated equine estrogen plus 2.5 milligrams of medroxyprogesterone acetate as a continuous combined regimen. After an average of 4.1 years follow-up, 108 of the 1380 women assigned to estrogen/progestin therapy and 96 of the 1383 women assigned placebo had a stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA). The relative risk of ischemic stroke plus TIA in women assigned to hormone use was 1.13 (95% CI 0.85 1.48).

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Hemminki and McPherson17 extracted data on cardiovascular disease from 22 published randomized trials of postmenopausal estrogen replacement therapy that were conducted to assess outcomes other than cardiovascular disease and did a meta-analysis of these data. The 22 trials identified for the meta-analysis involved more than 4000 women who had been assigned to hormone replacement or to placebo and to no treatment or vitamins minerals. The odds ratio for all cardiovascular disease in women assigned to hormone therapy was 1.39 (95% CI 0.48 3.95). The meta-analysis did not present data on the rate or risk of stroke in hormone users.

Hemminki and McPherson's meta-analysis excluded a large randomized trial (1265 subjects) reported by Speroff et al.18 that compared estradiol alone, estradiol plus norethindrone acetate as continuous combined therapy, or placebo alone. No data on stroke were presented in the only publication from this study.

The Women's Health Initiative is an on-going randomized trial that was also designed specifically to address the effect of postmenopausal estrogen only and estrogen/progestin therapy on cardiovascular endpoints. 19 Data stroke inci-dence and mortality are not yet available.

Observational Studies of Hormone Replacement Therapy

A number of observational epidemiologic studies have been performed specifically to assess the effect of postmenopausal hormone replacement therapy and the risk of stroke. Other studies provide data on the stroke but were not done specifically to address this topic. Table 8.5 describes the overall designs of the studies that provide data on postmenopausal hormone replacement therapy and the risk of stroke.20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44

The observational studies that provide data on hormone replacement therapy and stroke varied in the degree to which they used rigorous definitions of and included review to confirm cases. Some prospective studies ascertained hormone use only at entry to the study, and the results thus pertain ever having used of hormone replacement therapy, an exposure variable that is difficult to interpret. Some cohort studies included women with a past history of stroke at entry. Some studies did not control for potential confounders, the most important being hypertension, diabetes, and cigarette smoking, which are known to differ between hormone users and nonusers are also strong risk factors for stroke. Some studies can be inferred to pertain only use of estrogen alone because of the era in which they were conducted, and some present estimates of the risk of stroke separately in users of estrogen and estrogen/progestin combination. However, for many studies, the exact hormone regimen used by women in the study cannot be determined. The data in the next tables should interpreted recognizing these limitations.

TABLE 8.5. Summary of Studies that Provide Estimates of the Relative Risk of Stroke in Users of Postmenopausal Hormone Replacement Therapy

STUDY POPULATION DESIGN YEARS OF
CASE ASCERTAINMENT
CASE REVIEW FIRST-EVER CONTROL
FOR HBP,
SMOKING
DIABETES
REFERENCE(S)
Leisure World I Case control 1964 1973 Yes Yes Yes 20
Kaiser Permanente Northern California
  Case Control Study I Case control 1972 1974 Yes Yes1 Yes 21
England/Wales Case control 1978 No No No 22
Framingham Case control 1972 1980 Yes Yes Yes 23
Lipid Research Clinics Cohort 1972 1984 (?)1 Yes ? No 24
Walnut Creek Contraceptive Drug Study Cohort 1969 1976 nonfatal;        
1969 1977 fatal Yes/no2 Yes/no3 Yes 25,26
Copenhagen City Heart Study Cohort 1976 1988 Yes Yes Yes 27,28
British Menopause Clinics Cohort 1978 1988 No No No 29,30
Leisure World II Case control 1981 1987 all fatal;        
1981 1989 (?)4 ischemic No No No 31,32
National Health and Nutrition
  Examination Survey Cohort 1971 1987 No Yes Yes 33,34
King County, Washington Case control 1987 1989 Yes Yes Yes 35
Iowa Women's Health Study Cohort 1986 1991 No No Yes 36
Nurses' Health Study Cohort 1976 1994 fatal;        
1976 1992 nonfatal Yes/no1 Yes Yes 37,38
Danish Patient Register Case control 1990 1992 Yes Yes Yes 39
Kaiser Permanente Northern California
  Case Control Study II Case control 1991 1994 Yes Yes Yes 40
Turku Mammography Cohort Cohort 1987 1995 No No Yes 41
Rancho Bernardo Study Cohort 1984 1996 No Yes Yes 42
Uppsala Cohort 1977 1995 No Yes Yes 43,44
1Study recruitment 1972 to 1976; analysis from visit 2; 8.5 years of average follow-up.
2Case review for nonfatal events.
3First-ever for nonfatal events.
4Cannot determine closing date for analysis for ischemic stroke.

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Table 8.6 shows the results of the eight studies that provided an estimate risk for all fatal and nonfatal stroke in users of hormone replacement therapy. Three studies provided an estimate of the risk of stroke separately in current and past hormone users. All three studies were rigorous, had clear case definitions, and controlled for hypertension, diabetes, and smoking. The relative risk estimates from these studies were all very close to 1.0 in current hormone users. The studies showed that an effect of hormone use, if there is an effect, does not persist after cessation of use.

Table 8.7 shows the results of the nine studies that provided an estimate risk of ischemic stroke only in users hormone replacement therapy. Six studies provided an estimate of the risk of ischemic stroke separately in current hormone users and three provided an estimate in past users. All six studies that provided risk estimates in current users had clear case definitions and case review, were limited to first-ever stroke, and controlled for hypertension, diabetes, and smoking. In four of the six studies, the relative risk of ischemic stroke was higher in current users of hormone replacement therapy than nonusers. The four largest studies included more than 1500 women with ischemic stroke. All four studies reported relative risk estimates for ischemic stroke that were greater than 1.0, although the 95% CIs included 1.0 in all studies except Nurses' Health Study. The estimated relative risks of ischemic stroke in past users of hormone replacement therapy were close to 1.0 in all three studies that estimated risk in past hormone users.

Table 8.8 shows the results of the seven studies that provided an estimate the risk of hemorrhagic stroke only in users of hormone replacement therapy. Four studies were limited to subarachnoid hemorrhage. Five studies provided an estimate of the risk of hemorrhagic stroke separately in current hormone users and two provided an estimate in past users. The results of these studies were extremely heterogenous. Risk estimates for hemorrhagic stroke in current users of replacement hormone therapy ranged from 0.33 to 1.6. Even the three largest studies, all well-conducted, were contradictory, with risk estimates for hemorrhagic stroke in current users of hormone replacement therapy 0.38, 0.90, and 1.00. No conclusion about the effect of current use of hormone replacement therapy on the risk of hemorrhagic stroke can be drawn.

Table 8.9 shows the results of the nine studies that provided an estimate risk of fatal stroke in users hormone replacement therapy. Data on are of particular interest because of the findings in animal studies. Four studies provided an estimate of the risk of fatal stroke separately in current hormone users and three provided an estimate in past users. Unfortunately, these studies often did not include clear definitions of what qualified as a fatal stroke and did not include case review. The results were heterogenous. estimated relative risks of fatal stroke in current users hormone replacement therapy ranged from 0.16 to 0.95. On the other hand, the risk estimates for current use were all less

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and the data do not rule out the possibility of an effect estrogen in limiting ischemic damage following stroke.

TABLE 8.6. All Stroke: Estimated Relative Risk in Users of Postmenopausal Hormone Replacement Therapy

POPULATION NUMBER CURRENT USE EVER USE PAST USE REFERENCE
Leisure World I 210 1.12 (0.79 1.57) 20
Framingham 45 2.27 (1.22 4.23) 23
Copenhagen City Heart Study 971 1.0 (0.5 1.9)1 27
National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 250 0.82 (0.46 1.47)1 34
Nurses' Health Study 552 1.03 (0.82 1.31) 1.01 (0.86 1.18)3 0.99(0.80 1.22) 37
Turku Mammography Cohort 111 0.86 (0.42 1.75)4 0.97 (0.59 1.59)3 1.08 (0.55 2.10) 41
Rancho Bernardo 57 1.39 (0.59 3.26)5 42
Uppsala 289 0.88 (0.65 1.19)6 0.91 (0.71 1.17) 0.93 (0.71 1.22) 44
1Excludes subarachnoid hemorrhage.
2Self-report.
3Summary estimate was calculated as variance weighted average of current and past use.
4Summary estimate was calculated as variance weighted average of estrogen replacement therapy and combined estrogen/progestin replacement therapy.
5Summary estimate was calculated as variance weighted average of fatal and nonfatal.
6 Recent use. 7Includes TIA.

TABLE 8.7. Ischemic Stroke: Estimated Relative Risk in Users of Postmenopausal Hormone Replacement Therapy

POPULATION NUMBER CURRENT USE EVER USE PAST USE REFERENCE
Leisure World I 158 1.0 (N.R.) 20
Kaiser Permanente Northern California 198 1.32 (0.84 2.09) 22
  Case Control Study I
Framingham 21 2.60 (N.R.) 23
Walnut Creek Contraceptive Drug Study 23 0.9 (0.4 1.8) 25
Leisure World II 92 0.63 (0.40 0.97)1 32
Nurses' Health Study 281 1.40 (1.02 1.92) 1.19 (0.95 1.48)2 1.01 (0.74 1.36) 37
Danish Patient Register 846 1.17 (0.97 1.41)3 1.13 (0.98 1.31)2 1.08 (0.86 1.35) 39
Kaiser Pernanente Northern California 374 1.03 (0.65 1.65) 0.93 (0.67 1.27)2 0.84 (0.54 1.32) 40
  Case Control Study II
Uppsala 198 0.79 (0.54 1.16)4 0.94 (0.69 1.27) 44
N.R. = not reported, cannot be calculated
1Fatal only.
2Summary estimate was calculated as variance-weighted coverage of current and past use.
3Summary estimate was calculated as variance-weighted average of estrogen replacement therapy and combined estrogen/progestin.
4 Recent use.

TABLE 8.8. Hemorrhagic Stroke: Estimated Relative Risk in Users of Postmenopausal Hormone Replacement Therapy

POPULATION NUMBER CURRENT USE EVER USE PAST USE REFERENCE
Medical Research Council 231 0.64 (0.06 6.52)2 22
Walnut Creek Contraceptive Drug Study 111 1.6 (0.7 3.8) 25
King County, Washington 1031 0.38 (0.17 0.84) 0.47 (0.26 0.86) 35
Nurses' Health Study 1551 0.90 (0.57 1.41)3 0.85 (0.62 1.17)4 0.81 (0.52 1.25) 37
Danish Patient Register 1601 1.01 (0.69 1.48)3 0.93 (0.69 1.26)4 0.81 (0.49 1.33) 39
955 0.99 (0.55 1.76)3 0.97 (0.63 1.49)4 0.95 (0.51 1.76) 39
2556 1.00 (0.73 1.38)3 0.94 (0.74 1.21)4 0.86 (0.58 1.28) 39
Kaiser Permanent Northern California 836 0.33 (0.12 0.96) 40
   Case Control Study II
Uppsala 456 0.79(0.69 1.27) 44
1Subarachnoid hemorrhage only.
2Confidence interval was calculated from data in publication.
3Summar y estimate was calculated as variance-weighted average of estrogen replacement therapy and combined estrogen/progestin replacement therapy.
4Summary estimate was calculated as variance-weighted average of current and past use of hormone replacement therapy.
5Intracerebral hemorrhage.
6All hemorrhagic stroke.

TABLE 8.9. Fatal Stroke: Estimated Relative Risk in Users of Postmenopausal Hormone Replacement Therapy

POPULATION NUMBER CURRENT USE EVER USE PAST USE REFERENCE
Lipid Research Clinics 8 0.40 (0.01 3.07) 24
Walnut Creek Contraceptive Drug Study 9 0.6 (0.2 2.2) 26
British Menopause Clinics 23 0.54 (0.24 0.84) 30
Leisure World II 631 0.53 (0.31 0.91)1 31
National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 64 0.86 (0.28 2.66)2 34
Iowa Women's Health Study 90 0.95 (0.37 2.43) 0.90 (0.54 1.50) 0.88 (0.48 1.61) 36
Nurses' Health Study 167 0.68 (0.39 1.16) 0.89 (0.63 1.27)3 1.07 (0.68 1.69) 38
Turku Mammography Study 51 0.16 (0.2 1.18) 0.76 (0.32 1.80)3 1.05 (0.41 2.68) 41
Rancho Bernardo 37 0.92 (0.34 2.49) 42
1All fatal stroke.
2Self-reported hormone use.
3Summary estimate was calculated as variance-weighted average of current and past use.

Randomized Trials of Exogenous Estrogen and Stroke in Men

The Coronary Drug Project was a.large, randomized trial of lipid-lowering drugs in men with coronary disease that included two estrogen treatment arms, conjugated equine estrogen, at two doses, 2.5 and 5.0 milligrams. Data on the incidence of fatal stroke were presented in the publication about the results from 2.5 milligram treatment arm.45 Data on estrogen and fatal stroke also were presented in a publication about the results of randomized trials the Veterans Administration (VA) Cooperative Prostate Cancer Treatment trial.46

Table 8.10 shows that in the Coronary Drug Project the rate of fatal stroke was slightly lower in men treated with 2.5 milligrams of estrogen. In contrast, the VA Cooperative Study, the rate of fatal stroke in men treated with 5.0 milligrams of diethylstilbestrol was elevated substantially. The number of fatal strokes small in both studies. The dose of estrogen used the VA trial was very large. The studies do not provide evidence that estrogen prevents fatal stroke, but they do not out rule out this possibility.

Combined Estrogen/Progestin Oral Contraceptives and Stroke

Since oral contraceptives were first marketed in the early 1960's, the dose of both estrogen and progestin has decreased markedly. Early studies of stroke oral contraceptive use are consistent in finding an increased risk of ischemic stroke in current oral contraceptive users, but these studies are not relevant to oral contraceptive formulations now in widespread use.

Early studies on the relationship between oral contraceptives and hemorrhagic stroke are inconsistent. The unavailability and infrequency of use of radiologic tests (CT and MRI scans) that would distinguish between ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke makes these early studies difficult to interpret, and elevations in the risk of hemorrhagic stroke might be due to misclassification ischemic stroke as hemorrhagic because of presentation with headache.

Table 8.11 summarizes the results of four recent large studies stroke and oral contraceptive use in which a high percentage of cases had CT or MRI scan to define the type of stroke.47,48,49,50,51 Importantly, these studies also assessed smoking and hypertension as possible confounders and effect modifiers.

The two studies done in the United States47,48 found no overall increase risk of ischemic stroke in current oral contraceptive users. Both the WHO study49,50

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and the Transnational Study51 reported a threeto four-fold increase in the risk of ischemic stroke in current oral contraceptive users.

TABLE 8.10. Effect of Estrogen on Fatal Stroke in Randomized Trials in Men

STUDY AND REFERENCE SUBJECTS ESTROGEN PLACEBO NO. OF STROKES AND RATE/100 ESTROGEN NO. OF STROKES AND RATE/100 RELATIVE RISK IN ESTROGEN USERS
Coronary Drug Project45 Men with coronary artery disease 2.5 mg Premarin 4 1.8 11 2.1 0.86
VA Cooperative Urologic Research Group46 Men with prostate cancer 5 mg diethylstilbestrol 37 3.6 14 1.4 2.6

TABLE 8.11. Summary of Four Studies of Stroke Risk in Current Users of Combination Oral Contraceptives

STUDY AND REFERENCE ISCHEMIC STROKE HEMORRHAGIC STROKE
Number RR (95% C.I.) Number RR (95% C.I.)
Kaiser Permanente47 144 1.2 (0.5 2.6) 151 1.1 (0.6 2.2)
Washington State48 60 1.4 (0.5 3.8) 102 1.4 (0.7 3.0)
WHO49,50
  Developing countries 556 2.9 (2.2 4.0) 821 1.8 (1.3 2.3)
  Europe 141 3.0 (1.7 5.4) 247 1.4 (0.8 2.3)
Transnational51 220 3.6 (2.4 5.4) - -

The U.S. studies found either no increase in the risk of hemorrhagic stroke current oral contraceptive users or only a small increase.47,48 The WHO study reported a relative risk of hemorrhagic stroke in current oral contraceptive users of 1.8 (95% CI 1.3 2.3) in developing countries and 1.4 0.8 2.3) European countries. 50

The WHO study had a sufficiently large number of subjects to assess in detail the degree to which hypertension, smoking, age, and estrogen dose modified the effect of current oral contraceptive use for stroke. Table 8.12 shows estimates the relative risk of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke in current oral contraceptive users according to hypertension, smoking, age, and estrogen dose from the WHO study. The relative risks of both ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke were dramatically higher in current oral contraceptive users with hypertension than current oral contraceptives without hypertension. The relative risks of both ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke were also higher in current oral contraceptive users who smoked than in current users who did not smoke, but the magnitude of the difference in the risk of stroke between the current users who smoked and did not smoke was less than for women with and without hypertension.

In the European centers of the WHO study, higher estrogen dose oral contraceptives were associated with a higher risk of ischemic, but not hemorrhagic, stroke. The relative risks of hemorrhagic stroke in current oral contraceptive users who did not have hypertension, in non-smokers, and in women less than 35 years of age all were 1.1 1.4. In the European centers, the relative risk of ischemic stroke in current users of low-estrogen oral contraceptives was 1.36. The latter risks from the WHO study are about same as the overall relative risks of hemorrhagic stroke and ischemic stroke in current oral contraceptive users the two U.S. studies. In both U.S. studies, current use of oral contraceptives in women with hypertension and in women more than 35 years of age was rare, and the

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prevalence of smoking was low. In the U.S. studies, virtually all women used low estrogen formulations. Taken as a whole, recent studies show that current lowestrogen oral contraceptive use does not increase the risk of ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke in young women without hypertension who do not smoke. Combined estrogen/progestin oral contraceptives, and probably even low-estrogen oral contraceptives, greatly increase the risk of both hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke in women with hypertension.

TABLE 8.12. Estimated Relative Risk of Stroke in Current Oral Contraceptives Users by Presence or Absence of Hypertension, Smoking, Age >35, and Estrogen Dose: WHO Collaborative Study

Risk Factor Ischemic Stroke Hemorrhagic Stroke
Developing Countries
RR (95% C.I.)
Europe
RR (95% C.I.)
Developing Countries
RR (95% C.I.)
Europe
RR (95% C.I.)
No hypertension 2.73 (1.97 3.77) 2.71 (1.47 4.99) 1.43 (1.06 1.93) 1.05 (0.61 1.80)
Hypertension 14.5 (5.36 39.0) 10.7 (2.04 56.6) 14.3 (6.72 30.4) 10.3 (3.27 32.3)
Nonsmoker 2.64 (1.85 3.77) 2.09 (1.03 4.5) 1.49 (1.05 2.10) 1.19 (0.58 2.44)
Smoker 4.83 (2.76 8.43) 7.20 (3.23 16.1) 3.73 (2.43 5.71) 3.10(1.65 5.83)
Age <35 NR1 1.11(0.75 1.66) 0.85 (0.43 1.68)
Age 35 NR1 2.46 (1.67 3.62) 2.17 (1.08 4.36)
Estrogen <50mg 3.39 (2.24 5.13) 1.36 (0.60 3.07) 1.66(1.16 2.37) 1.27 (0.70 2.32)
Estrogen 50mg 2.95 (1.69 5.14) 5.56 (2.43 12.7) 1.65(1.11 2.47) 1.42 (0.67 2.97)
1NR = not reported.
Source: WHO Collaborative Study of CardiovascularDisease and Steroid Hormone Contraception:Ischaemic stroke and combined oral contraceptives: Results of an international, multicentre, case-control study. Lancet 1996;348:498 505; and WHO Collaborative Study of Cardiovascular Disease and Steroid Hormone Contraception: Haemorrhagic stroke, overall stroke risk, and combined oral contraceptives:Results of an international, multicentre, case-control study. Lancet 1996;348:505 510.

Summary and Conclusions

Stroke incidence and mortality are higher in men than women, suggesting that hormonal factors may influence the development of stroke or its outcome. Studies in rats show that endogenous and exogenous estrogen affect the extent of ischemic injury after experimental occlusive stroke, suggesting a possible effect of estrogen in preventing death and disability following stroke.

Exogenous estrogen and estrogen/progestin combinations affect a number of factors that may mediate the occurrence of stroke in postmenopausal women. The net effect of the complex changes on stroke risk in the whole animal cannot be predicted. The possibility that the net effect might be to decrease risk of stroke cannot be ruled out.

The only randomized trial that has provided data on the effect of postmenopausal hormones on the risk of stroke in women showed no effect of combined estrogen/progestin therapy on the risk of a combined endpoint of ischemic stroke plus TIA. Observational studies of postmenopausal hormones and stroke, taken as a whole, show no decrease in the risk of ischemic stroke current users. Observational studies on the effect of hormone replacement therapy hemorrhagic stroke are inconsistent, and no firm conclusion can be drawn from them. Epidemiologic studies confined to fatal stroke do not rule out the possibility that estrogen might decrease the risk of death following stroke, as suggested by animal studies.

The body of evidence on low-estrogen and combined estrogen/progestin oral contraceptives and stroke shows that current oral contraceptive use does not increase the risk of stroke in young women who do not have hypertension and do not smoke.

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Stroke Prevention
A Primer on Stroke Prevention and Treatment: An overview based on AHA/ASA Guidelines
ISBN: 1405186518
EAN: 2147483647
Year: 2001
Pages: 23

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