Interlude: Reconstructing Failure

Discovering exactly what happened before and during an accident or disaster can be crucial in establishing fault or preventing a similar incident from occurring again. Enter a company based in Menlo Park, California, called Failure Analysis Associates (FAA). FAA has more than 400 employees , including heavy-duty Ph.D. scientists and engineers , devoted to reconstructing, analyzing, and understanding catastrophic system and materials failures. FAA has analyzed incidents ranging from the Oklahoma City bombing to James Dean's fatal car accident.

The company's databases include over 350 million accident and incident records, including a copy of every U.S. death certificate filed since 1975. Their Arizona-based desert test facility has a 1,200-foot crash rail for propelling vehicles into other solid objects, a 90- foot drop tower, and a full-fledged ballistics range. In short, these people are serious about figuring out what went wrong.

One of their more lighthearted analyses was commissioned by a TV show that wanted to know if James Dean's fatal accident was indeed caused by the film star's reckless speeding, as popular folklore records. FAA used computers to reconstruct the event and analyze which of the two drivers was at fault and how fast the two cars were going when they collided.

FAA started their analysis by collecting as much information as they could. The data included the original California Highway Patrol report, statements from two witnesses, and photos of the accident scene. Then they created a computer model of the cars, the road, and the surrounding terrain. Because the original cars weren't available, FAA went out and bought two duplicate cars, as similar as they could get to the original vehicles. These cars were digitized and added to the computer simulation. As much information as possible was added, including the weight of each of the cars, their respective tire widths and crush stiffness, the road surfaces at the time, the apparent point of contact, and the finishing positions of the vehicles after the accident.

Many different combinations of speeds and angles were tried out in the computer simulation in an attempt to simulate the actual car damage and positions as accurately as possible. After extensive analysis, a 45-second computer animation was produced, showing the accident from several different points of view. The results were somewhat surprising.

With the best possible duplication of actual events, Dean's car (a Porsche Spyder) was found to have been traveling at 57 mph while the other car (a Ford) was traveling at 55 mph. Far from Dean acting recklessly, the accident appears to have been caused by the driver of the Ford turning left directly in front of Dean's oncoming car, probably making a fatal misjudgment of its speed.

In the future, as civilization becomes increasingly dependent on computer technology for controlling facilities as diverse as banking, nuclear power stations , medical tools, and weapons systems, it's likely that FAA and similar companies will be spending much of their time reconstructing and analyzing software failures and bugs .