THE INTERNET IS BIG BROTHER

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How prepared is your business for the future? As the Internet expands its reach to the farthest corners of the globe, companies will find themselves dealing with increasingly complex challenges such as Big Brother.

In the Internet of tomorrow you can be sure of at least three things. First, the experience will not be anything like what we’re familiar with. Second, despite Point One, little will change in the next 10 years. And third, the business environment of the future will be much less forgiving, so companies that do not take the new technologies seriously are putting themselves at risk.

A High-Fiber Diet

During the 1990s we all heard about fiber-optic technology’s potential for increasing bandwidth and enhancing performance. Recently, better installation techniques and a wider range of fiber-compatible equipment have made fiber both easily available and less expensive than it used to be.

Although fiber will remain a good choice for backbones and carrier-class interconnections, most companies will probably continue to run copper, at least for the foreseeable future. After all, few businesses want to bear even slightly higher costs for fiber installation and networking gear. Instead, expect to see more companies upgrading their existing copper technology. Expect them to get away with it, too, because for most practical purposes, copper can handle the load.

Let Them Eat Broadband

High-speed Internet connections, especially the cable modem^[vi] and DSL technologies lumped together under the “broadband” heading, are increasing in number at an astonishing rate, at least in First-World countries such as the U.S. and within the European Union. The biggest problem the providers face seems to be keeping up with demand. The current waiting list of DSL and cable access orders probably won’t be caught up until 2006. Even then, North America will be home to wide swaths of rural territory without high-speed access.

This scenario isn’t likely to change in the next decade, either. Unless governments (Big Brother) insist that Internet carriers supply rural service at a loss (as American telephone companies were ordered to do with voice service), broadband providers will have little incentive to deploy their technologies on a wide scale.

The increasing availability of broadband wireless connections is another revolution that’s already under way, although it won’t make a serious difference anytime soon either. In its infant state, broadband wireless, with its ability to support certain ebusiness applications, is best suited to a LAN-like role. It will be a while before we see a device that combines the size of the cell-phone with the power of the laptop.

What about IPv6?

In the next decade, we’ll probably also see a wider implementation of IPv6 (IP version 6) which already has a foothold. IPv6 addresses many of the limitations of today’s IP (version 4), such as address shortages, quality-of-service issues, and security. A dedicated backbone, the “6bone” is already in place. Moreover, to ease the task of changing fundamental IP protocols, IPv6 is designed for backward compatibility with IPv4.

Network equipment vendors have also been building IPv6 support into their products, which increases the likelihood that IPv6 will conquer the backbones first, trickling down to the desktop via OS upgrade cycles. Ten years out, it’s safe to assume that most of the devices on the Internet will be using IPv6 from end to end.

A Truly Global Internet

The days of Americans (Big Brother) ruling the Internet are not over by a long shot. Even so, the next decade will bring an explosion of Internet usage in places such as Asia and Africa. As the Internet becomes more pervasive, businesses will face an even greater shortage of skilled employees. American businesses that have traditionally relied on a foreign labor market may be caught short when those workers can find jobs at home.

As always, the spoils will go to those businesses that think ahead. We are going to see big changes, so start preparing yourself for a world ruled by broadband, culturally neutral, easily maintained wireless access. That means considering technical issues and different standards of civil rights, conduct, and privacy. The companies that do will have a head start on the competition for the next decade and maybe the next century.

^[vi]John R. Vacca, The Cabling Handbook (2nd Edition), Prentice Hall, 2001.

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