Do First-Cut Risk Analysis (Process Notes 1.2.3)

This analysis assesses the major risks associated with building the desired product. It is necessary for the team to ask two questions:

• "What are the main risks we face if we build this product?"

• "What will happen if that risk becomes a problem?"

For example, suppose that the product is to be a new reservation system for a holiday tour operator. The following major risks might be associated with this kind of system:

• "What happens if we are not ready for the holiday season?"

• "The system is to be used by travel agents. What if we build a system that takes too long to learn to use?"

• "The system must interface with airline systems. What happens if the airline systems change before our system is built?"

It is necessary to be brutally honest when stating risks. Some risks may seem like criticisms of people at the blastoff meeting, so, if necessary, make it possible to contribute risks anonymously.

Risks are the worst-case scenarios that you can imagine. Here are some suggested risks to examine:

• Do we have an unrealistic schedule for delivering this product? (This is the most common risk of all.)

• What could happen if we don't have the product on time?

• Do we unrealistic expectations for this product?

• Do we have the people skills needed to build this product?

• What new skills are needed?

• Have we built this kind of product before?

• What kind of things have gone wrong on other projects at our installation?

• What kind of things have gone wrong with this kind of system, at your installation or elsewhere?

• What have we done badly in the past?

• What external influences are there on the project? For example, are there proposed changes to laws affecting this product? Will the company be reorganized before the product is delivered?

• What new technology is needed for this product?

• Are we dependent on products being delivered by external forces?

• Are we making unrealistic assumptions about any other products that this project needs?

• Do we have the correct management structure for this project?

• Are we in danger of "gold plating" the product?

Being honest about the risks at this stage will considerably improve your chances of successfully building your product.