Chapter 2. Contrasting the Present and the Future

If we try to contrast the present and the future, it is like showing the radical contrast between two different images of the universe. Just imagine the universe before and after Copernicus (visit the web site shown in Figure 2.1 for more information). He was the first to suggest what has since become known as the Copernican theory; namely, that the sun is at the center of the solar system (which was considered the universe at that time), not Earth as everyone had thought up to then. ^[1] The paradigm shift occurred slowly because Copernicus wasn't immediately sure how to present this revolution in a way that everyone could understand, but eventually the sun became the focal point around which everything was centered. If we use this analogy for today's computing world, we realize see that at present everything is hardware-centric, while the future will be user -centric .

^[1] Nicolaus Copernicus (1543), De revolutionibus orbium coelestium , Nuremberg.

Figure 2.1. Nicolaus Copernicus

For many people, today's computing possibilities seem infinite, but due to the technologies and paradigms used today, there are limitations. Look, for example, at all the dimensions of the computing infrastructure and the layers that are used to implement and deliver a user experience. Traditionally, networked computing was built on the OSI seven-layer stack that had applications at the seventh layer, with everything else being about networks, connectivity, and communications. The user interface (one of the things at the top layer) was just part of the application, and the user was actually not part of the model at all. This required users of the system to know lots about the application and its user interface.

In contrast, we should define a model that starts with the user at the center, layers various user interface modalities around the user, and supports these with user models that understand the context and intent of the user. Then we need to deliver value to the user in a manner consistent with concerns for security, privacy, trust, preferences, and other policies. To do that, machines will need to understand how to perform everyday tasks and how to do the master's bidding.

People will be able to tap into this virtual world using any device and have the experience that everything is unified. Neither device differences nor location differences matter anymore. The underlying system remembers the user's activities and other aspects of state; the user can communicate with the system, people, and services whenever convenient and appropriate.

To make this system successful, the user interface experience must be appropriate. Traditional personal computers that are dominating digital communication today will become a minority of access devices in this new system. Computers must understand user intent, most easily achieved using natural modes of communication. In some cases, this will still be the keyboard; in many other cases, it will mean a broad adoption of input devices that utilize speech, text, handwriting, gestures, images, and so forth. Users will adopt input techniques that enable them to convey intent to their appliances most naturally.

This will require efforts to standardize the semantics of processes and how they can be achieved. Thus, starting with XML and Web standards, we will have to fill out the semantics of tasks, people, goals, resources, etc., so that devices from various manufacturers can work with services provided by various service providers to get work done. HP's e-speak concepts, and other research projects in process automation, sketched out much of this (see also Chapter 6).

UDDI and Web services, explained in Chapter 3, are putting down the foundations for service-centric computing, service discovery, and service invocation. Much of what users will notice or care about will be the interface experience; under the covers, everything will be rearranged to delegate work to agents .

What this means is the disposal of current programming concepts and paradigms to make way for new ideas. It's not enough to enhance existing applications; we need to rethink the services behind the applications and rewrite them for the new me-centric environment.

Table 2.1. Me-Centric Computing Features

This table provides you with an overview on the key features of a me-centric scenario.
Feature	Description
Me-Centric Appliances	Devices that have knowledge about certain tasks and can do work on behalf of the users
Me-Centric Services	Services that handle information and service requests automatically and autonomously
Me-Centric Environments	Environments that can operate me-centric appliances and provide access to me-centric services

To give you a better understanding of how the future will look, this chapter offers some example scenarios through which you will see the impact of the new thinking and its radical simplicity. You'll see in each scenario how one segment of life exists in the present, and how it will change in the future. Hopefully you'll glean some input for your own business ideas. For more detailed examples, see Internet Future Strategies , ^[2] which not only provides a set of scenarios, but also an implementation plan for each of them and a sample ROI calculation.

^[2] Daniel Amor (2001), Internet Future Strategies , New York: Prentice Hall.

To put the scenarios in context with me-centric computing, we are providing a table of key features here (see Table 2.1), with a short explanation of what these features mean. At the end of each scenario, you will find a summary of how these features have been implemented in that particular scenario. Later in the book, we will dig into more detail of these features and how they create a me-centric architecture.

Some of the scenarios have been developed by the HP Labs ^[3] and some ideas have been taken from Internet Future Strategies .

^[3] http://www.hpl.hp.com/