5.11. Adoption Timeline
As soon as the high data wireless PAN (IEEE 802.15.3a) specification is completed, UWB products will hit the markets very quickly for both PC-oriented products and consumer electronics devices. History has shown that PC-oriented manufacturers have been ahead of consumer electronics original equipment manufacturers (OEM) to adopt wireless technology, but with UWB we believe that PC and CE OEMs will adopt UWB at approximately the same time. The reason is that there has been a more concerted effort by consumer electronics companies to differentiate their products from PC-oriented devices that are becoming more and more consumer-oriented. Also, the PC devices have just adopted the latest USB standard, 2.0, which offers 480 Mbps; and despite the obvious advantages of wireless, we believe it will take a few more years to reach these speeds with UWB. Analysts believe that mobile consumer electronics, such as digital cameras and music players, will appear slightly before the fixed CE segment (i.e., HDTVs, projectors, and A/V receivers) [18, 19]. Wireless LAN and low-data-rate wireless PAN will gain traction more slowly and reach mass market potential about five to seven years after the short-range wireless PAN markets have been established. Figure 5-7 demonstrates the timeline for all the major mass markets for UWB.
Figure 5-7. A timeline of UWB mass markets