Integrated Project Management By Earl Hall, Juliane Johnson
Table of Contents
Chapter 8. Risk Analysis Basics Time Buffer Calculations
Risk analysis is conducted so that a project team can accurately predict the project completion date. It is based on task-by-task analysis. We discovered that we can identify each task's duration expectation that will be good most of the time over 50 percent of the time if the task were repeated over and over. And, we can identify the likely worst case over run for each task. We discovered a way to use this information to average out task overruns to create a project time buffer similar to that an insurance actuary creates. He tells his company how much money to set aside to pay claims of clients who achieve longer than average longevity. We create a time buffer for the Gantt chart to protect our completion date estimate from the tasks that over run their most of the time forecast.