Analysis Across Examples

Even more compelling than the commonalities among the experiences of MacArthur, Gerstner, Chamberlain and Pickett, Victory s HopDevil and Lager, and Buffett are the differences. MacArthur, Chamberlain, and Buffett all made appropriate, perhaps even brilliant , risk-reward trade-offs, but Lee s inexplicable decision to risk a division without either a high probability of success or a plan in place for the rapid exploitation of victory underscores the fine line between boldness and tragic desperation. Furthermore, MacArthur, Gerstner, Chamberlain, and the HopDevil launch all represent full commitments to the right strategy and commensurate benefits, whereas Pickett and Lager failed because Lee fully committed to the wrong strategy and because Lager was not a bold enough product offering. Finally, MacArthur and Gerstner illustrate successful efforts to unfreeze a static front, whereas Pickett illustrates a failed effort.

Of the three maestros, MacArthur, Gerstner, and Buffett, only MacArthur made a deliberate effort, in the form of exhaustive, meticulous planning and information gathering, to mitigate the risks associated with his plan; Gerstner and Buffett relied on their intuition. And, of the three, Gerstner was the most flexible; his genius was his willingness to alter his plan radically on the fly as conditions changed. Buffett altered his plan, but only after a long observation period, and MacArthur adhered closely to his plan through changing conditions.