Chapter 15


[Page 787 ( continued )]
1.

(a) Apr = 8.67, May = 8.33, Jun = 8.33, Jul = 9.00, Aug = 9.67, Sep = 11.00, Oct = 11.00, Nov = 11.00, Dec = 12.00, Jan = 13.33; (b) Jun = 8.20, Jul = 8.80, Aug = 9.40, Sep = 9.60, Oct = 10.40, Nov = 11.00, Dec = 11.40, Jan = 12.60; (c) MAD (3) = 1.89, MAD (5) = 2.43

3.

(a) F 4 = 116.00, F 5 = 121.33, F 6 = 118.00, F 7 = 143.67, F 8 = 138.33, F 9 = 141.67, F 10 = 135.00, F 11 = 156.67, F 12 = 143.33, F 13 = 136.67; (b) F 6 = 121.80, F 7 = 134.80, F 8 = 125.80, F 9 = 137.20, F 10 = 143.00, F 11 = 149.00, F 12 = 137.00, F 13 = 142.00; (c) F 4 = 113.85, F 5 = 116.69, F 6 = 125.74, F 7 = 151.77, F 8 = 132.4, F 9 = 138.55, F 10 = 142.35, F 11 = 160.0, F 12 = 136.69, F 13 = 130.20; (d) 3 - qtr MA : E = 32.0, 5 - qtr MA : E = 36.4, weighted MA : E = 28.09

5.

(a) F 4 = 400.000, F 5 = 406.67, F 6 = 423.33, F 7 = 498.33, F 8 = 521.67, F 9 = 571.67; (b) F 2 = 400.00, F 3 = 410.00, F 4 = 398.00, F 5 = 402.40, F 6 = 421.92, F 7 = 452.53, F 8 = 460.00, F 9 = 498.02; (c) 3-sem. MAD = 80.33, exp. smooth. MAD = 87.16

7.

F 11 (exp. smooth) = 68.6, F 11 (adjusted) = 69.17, F 11 (linear trend) = 70.22; exp. smooth: E = 14.75, MAD = 1.89; adjusted: E = 10.73, MAD = 1.72; linear trend: MAD = 1.09

9.

(a) F 21 = 74.67, MAD = 3.12; (b) F 21 = 75.875, MAD = 2.98; (c) F 21 = 74.60, MAD = 2.87; (d) 3-mo. moving average and exponentially smoothed

11.

F 13 = 631.22, = 26.30, E = 289.33, biased low

13.

F 1 = 155.6, F 2 = 192.9, F 3 = 118.2, F 4 = 155.6

15.

F 04 (adjusted) = 3,313.19, F 04 (linear trend) = 2,785.00; adjusted: MAD = 431.71; linear trend: MAD = 166.25

17.

fall = 44.61, winter = 40.08, spring = 52.29, summer = 70.34; yes

19.

E = 86.00, = 8.60, MAD = 15.00, MAPD = 0.08

21.

MAD : MA = 1.89, exp. smooth = 2.16; 3-mo. moving average

23.

y = 0.67 + .223 x , 88.58%

25.

(a) y = 113.4 + 2.986 x , 140.43 gal.; (b) .929

27.

(a) y = 6,541.66 - .448 x ; y ($9,000) = 2,503.2, y ($7,000) = 3,400.6; (b) - .754

29.

b = 2.98, the number of gallons sold per each degree increase

31.

y = 13.476 - 0.4741 x , r = -0.76, r 2 = 0.58; yes, relationship; y = 2.57% defects

33.

linear trend line, 3-mo. MA and adj. exp. smooth all are relatively accurate

35.

exponential smoothing appears to be less accurate than linear trend line

37.

F 6 (adj.) = 74.19 seat occupancy , = 1.08, MAD = 8.6

39.

student choice of model

41.

(a) y = 119.27 + 12.28 x , y (lb.) = 315.67; (b) y = 2504.18 + .147 x , r 2 = .966.

43.

(a) y = 13,803.07 + 470.55 x , 65.15%; (b) y = 83 - 1.68 x ; 64.5%

45.

(a) y = 745.91 2.226 x 1 + .163 x 2 ; (b) r 2 = .992; (c) y = 7,186.91

47.

(a) y = 117.128 + .072 x 1 + 19.148 x 2 ; (b) r 2 = .822; (c) y = $940.60




Introduction to Management Science
Introduction to Management Science (10th Edition)
ISBN: 0136064361
EAN: 2147483647
Year: 2006
Pages: 358

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