Chapter 2. Moving to Windows Vista
As I write this, a few months before Windows Vista is slated to hit the shelves, Microsoft's dominance of the desktop remains as solid as ever. Combining the numbers from all Windows versions (particularly XP, Me, 2000, and 98), Microsoft enjoys about a 90% share of the client operating system market, give or take a point or two. That's dominant, with a capital "D." With numbers like that, it's almost a certainty that any new operating system release from Microsoft is going to be a smashing success. After all, nearly every new non-Macintosh computer is sold with a version of Windows preinstalled, and tens of millions of new computers are sold each year, so any new version of Windows will have instant market clout. I see no reason why that trend won't continue with Windows Vista. However, when you have a solid lock on 90% of the market, your definition of "success" is likely to be a bit more stringent. Sure, Microsoft is pleased as punch that so many copies of Windows go out the door on new PCs, but what Microsoft desires even more is a brisk retail trade because retail sales mean OS upgrades. And in its secret heart-of-hearts, Microsoft's ultimate goal for every new Windows release is to have each and every Windows user upgrade to the new version. That would be not only immensely profitable, but also cheaper because it would mean only one OS to support. Of course, a complete migration to a new version of Windows or any other OS has never happened and never will. Given that fact, Microsoft's Windows team is happy even if just a significant portion of the current user base makes the move to the new OS. That did not happen with Windows XP, particularly in the corporate market, where many IT managers and chief technology officers decided to stick with the robust and familiar Windows 2000 client. That's not to say that Windows XP was in any sense a failurenot even close. Millions of people did upgrade to XP, and tens of millions of people received XP on their new machines. By any measure, XP has been Microsoft's most successful OS yet. What will happen with Windows Vista? It's too soon to tell, although I'd bet a good percentage of those long-in-the-tooth Windows 2000 desktops will upgrade to the new OS. The real key for Microsoft will be the number of XP users who follow the company to Vista. XP has been a solid performer that gets better with each fix that comes down the Windows Update pipeline. And with Microsoft's decision to backport key new technologies such as Windows Presentation Foundation and Windows Communications Foundation to XP, not to mention the availability of Internet Explorer 7 for XP, it might seem like a tough sell. If you find yourself on the upgrade bubble, this chapter should help because I take you through everything you need to know about making the move to Windows Vista. |
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