Quantitative Risk Analysis

Quantitative Risk Analysis applies interviewing and statistical techniques to evaluate the effect of risk events on the project objectives. Quantitative Risk Analysis helps the project manager to determine appropriate amounts of management reserve or contingency to be used in the project cost and schedule objectives. Because Quantitative Risk Analysis uses numerical data and statistical techniques, it has more credibility than the Qualitative Risk Analysis, which is primarily based on expert judgment. The sensible risk response decision(s) and contingency reserve amounts will be based on the information from the Quantitative Risk Analysis.

Quantitative Risk Analysis Inputs

The inputs for the Quantitative Risk Analysis are the same as the Qualitative Risk Analysis with the exception of the updated Risk Register and the project plan. Because the Risk Register is updated during Qualitative Analysis, this information is usually needed for Quantitative Analysis. The components of the project plan that are important for this Quantitative Analysis are the project cost management plan and the project schedule management plan.

Q.	The inputs to the Quantitative Risk Analysis process are the Project Management Plan, Risk Register, Risk Management Plan, ________, and ________.
		A.	Organizational Process Assets, Project Scope Statement
		B.	Impact and Probability Matrix, Project Scope Management Plan
		C.	Risk Probability, Impact Assessment
		D.	Project Scope Management Plan, Organizational Process Assets

The correct answer is A. The Project Scope Statement and Organizational Process Assets are inputs to all of the risk management processes.

Quantitative Risk Analysis should be revisited after Risk Response Planning has been completed to ensure that the risk responses are adequate.

Quantitative Risk Analysis Tools and Techniques

The are seven tools of Quantitative Risk Analysis, which include data gathering, risk analysis and modeling techniques:

• Interviewing Used to obtain information to quantify probability and impact

• Probability Distributions Statistical distributions used to represent uncertainty in durations of schedules or costs

• Expert Judgment Subject matter experts internal or external to the organization

• Sensitivity Analysis Method for determining which risks have the most potential impact on the project

• Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Statistical concept that calculates outcomes, such as decision tree analysis, modeling, and simulation

• Decision Tree Analysis Quantifies the EMV of possible scenarios

• Modeling and Simulation Model that translates uncertainty into potential impact on project objectives

Decision Tree Analysis

Decision Tree Analysis multiplies the outcome (usually expressed in monetary terms) by the probability, which produces a number that can be used to compare outcomes. For example, if there is a 50% chance that the risk event will occur and the cost of the risk event is estimated to be U.S. $10,000, then the expected outcome is $5,000, although the real outcome would be either U.S. $0 or U.S. $10,000. However, for evaluation purposes, the expected value of this risk is U.S. $5,000. Each option is converted to its expected value, using the same process (probability multiplied by the amount of time or money).

Q.	Name the two tools and techniques of the Quantitative Analysis that are most subjective, i.e., that are based on opinions.
		A.	Interviewing, Decision Tree Analysis
		B.	Probability Distributions
		C.	Expert judgment, Interviewing
		D.	Expert judgment, Sensitivity Analysis

The best answer is C. Decision Tree Analysis, Probability Distributions, Modeling and Simulation, Expected Monetary Value, and Sensitivity Analysis are numerically based statistical tools.

Quantitative Risk Analysis Outputs

The Risk Register is again the primary output of the Quantitative Risk Analysis, updated by the Quantitative Risk Analysis with:

• Estimates of cost and schedule outcomes Used to calculate contingency reserves

• Probabilities of achieving project objectives Cost and time objectives

• Prioritized list of quantified risks List of greatest risks, that is, threats and opportunities

• Trends in Quantitative Risk Analysis Trends that may affect risk responses

Q.	What parts of the Risk Register are added during Quantitative Risk Analysis?
		A.	Trends in Quantitative Risk Analysis results
		B.	Probabilities of achieving project objectives
		C.	Estimates of cost and schedule outcomes
		D.	B and C
		E.	A and B

The correct answer is D. Probabilities of achieving project objectives and estimates of cost and schedule outcomes are both added during the Quantitative Risk Analysis process. The other outputs were developed during Risk Identification and Qualitative Risk Analysis.