5.3 When is Risk Really Risk?

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I can sit here all day and spout off nearly everything that could go wrong on practically any project, because, as we shall see, this is highly although not completely predictable, as the hijacked shipment mentioned previously demonstrates. All this really means, however, is that I am neurotic in the very best Woody Allen tradition. Seriously, in our business, risk is risk only if it is acknowledged as such by your project team and the likely "victims," or someone acting in their proxy. I can predict all the gloom and doom I want, but unless the potentially harmed parties agree on the likelihood of danger and a specific course of action, this exercise can be futile.

Why is that? Let us look at the likely outcomes of a meaningful risk analysis, and you will see what I mean:

Blowing it off. A potential risk is discussed, and the project team and possible victims agree that there is no issue. An example would be that the customer cannot move to the new building as originally planned on July 1, but has to wait 2 weeks due to construction delays. It is conceivable that the move can be postponed without any significant impact.
Stacking the sandbags. In this scenario, both the potentially impacted party and we agree that a glitch would be unacceptable, and jointly develop a good Plan B. Let us say that the potential construction delay in the previous example would cause unacceptable disruption in the beneficiary's world. The user states that they must move during the first half of the month because their busy time is the second half of the month when they close the previous month's books. We have multiple options, such as finding "swing space," rescheduling the move, or going to the whip on the contractors to guarantee the original move date. This last Plan B should probably be reworded as "going to the wallet."
Rolling the dice. After detailed conversations, the potential victim acknowledges the risk and accepts up front the possible consequences without contingency. In the previous example, the customer may say, "All right, then we will have to work overtime to meet our business deadlines and move at the same time, if that is how it works out."
Going into denial. The worst possible outcome is when you discuss a significant risk with the potential victim who dismisses the probability of its occurrence, or your forecast of dire consequences if it transpires. If improperly handled, this situation can explode at your feet. In this case, Murphy's law is reaffirmed and the victim not only blames you for the disaster, but will allege that you failed to yell, "Duck!"

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