Future Growth Opportunities and Technologies

Enablers and Drivers and Globalization

Professor Nolan and Larry Benningson further describe some of the major enablers and drivers behind the future growth of the IT consulting industry as well as how globalization has impacted this growth.

"First, innovations in frameworks and methodologies, along with trained professionals, have provided value-added services uniquely available from the consulting firm. For example, the Boston Consulting Group and McKinsey came up with unique conceptual frameworks for assisting management in sorting out action plans for their various lines of business. Newness and complexity have been a second driver. Andersen Consulting, now Accenture, has provided expertise in designing and coding complex computer applications. SAP and Seibel Systems have developed unique package software. They have also provided specialized consulting services in order to assist in the implementation of the package software. A third driver has been the building to critical mass of high levels of expertise that are not economical to maintain in a particular company. For example, computer security consulting requires a high level of expertise, which few firms can economically maintain in-house. By providing these kinds of services to many firms, critical mass can be maintained in the practice group, as well as ensure that the group stays on the leading edge of the subject matter. Related to this third driver is the focus that a separate consulting firm can maintain in managing a highly talented group of knowledge workers. The management and incentive systems are quite different in a consulting firm than in, say, a product firm. Consequently, a product firm may not be attractive to various knowledge workers who prefer to work in the consulting environment. A fourth driver is the demand for process and behavior change that IT implementation puts on most organizations. IT was not just a new technology. To capture the value that IT represented, organizations had to address changes in structure, culture, people, process, and leadership. Many organizations turned to the consulting industry for help in understanding and managing these significant changes. Finally, the IT consulting industry enjoyed an unprecedented frenzy of convergence of first, the adoption of systems such as enterprise resource planning (ERP) and customer relationship management (CRM); second, the management improvements such as Biological and Physical Research Enterprise (BPRE); third, the problems to solve such as the Year 2000 bug; and fourth, new territory to pioneer such as e-business."(69)

Predictions

HBS has outlined some amazing predictions for the future of IT management consulting. Let's glean to the future of IT consulting through the eyes of HBS.

"We believe that the recent restructuring in the IT management consulting industry is at a point of industry transition. That transition coincides with the emergence of new drivers of IT management consulting growth. While the transition is still being played out, we can see some of these new drivers taking shape. By the late 1990s, new applications development had become almost exclusively supplanted by package implementation. In addition, networking and the Internet moved the IT infrastructure for the IBM standard to an emerging environment characterized by open standards. Accordingly, the IT infrastructure became simpler and more complex at the same time, through the innovation of layers and application programming interfaces (APIs). The implication for IT management consulting is a rather complex demand to provide both strategic perspective and implementation savvy on managing the considerable risks of not being able to realize the strategic competitive advantages of computing because of failures to effectively manage implementation challenges. Further, within the context of the management challenges of balancing strategic opportunities with implementation capabilities, there are dampening forces on industry growth. For example, the wave of ERP installations projects is now beyond its peak. While outsourcing is still an established practice, companies have gained experience, and can now do much more for themselves that they, in the past, have looked to outsiders to do. Managers know more about IT, more about the business, more about organizational potential and implications of IT and more about designing their own backbone and architecture. There are forces that will drive new demand. Security is fast becoming a ubiquitous issue. The Internet will experience dramatic growth in Asia and Europe. New applications such as bioinformatics and telematics create new consulting segments. And the adoption of Internet2 will eventually have broad impact. IT consulting, as much as any product or service, creates its own demand. A high degree of industry adaptation in the IT consulting industry will be required in the future. By introducing innovations and educating the market about the competitive benefits of those innovations, IT consulting invents and "earns" its opportunities for growth. This ability of IT consulting to lead and to adapt is key to its robust development." (69)

HBS thinks there are major lessons here for CTOs and CIOs. Let's follow them.

"Many functional and business leaders have become conversant about IT, and many IT specialists have become knowledgeable about the strategic and business benefits of IT. Companies that encourage and incorporate this integrated and more sophisticated capability within their organizations will have an edge over those that have to rely on outsiders for the integrated view. The rate of change in IT capabilities is a companion to the rate of change that most companies experience in other technologies, markets and initiatives of competitors. We have noted that the successful IT consulting firm must be able to anticipate, sense and nimbly respond to change. This is equally true for operations managers who face the daunting task of implementing new IT capabilities while ensuring that they are also prepared for the next version or generation. The emerging IT environment is at a level of complexity such that efforts to build IT infrastructure and integrated applications require specialized expertise that is often available only in IT consulting firms. Good operations managers will ensure that their organizations have the ability to work effectively with and integrate the value from networks of service providers with a variety of special capabilities. Finally, we think that it is tempting but risky to completely turn over IT initiatives to IT consulting firms. A significant number of your own IT professionals and users should be included in integrated IT initiatives."(9)

The future is very bright and full of emerging ideas and technologies that would be analyzed and properly redirected by a CTO focusing on emerging technologies.

Vance Chan Associates

According to Vance Chan Associates, some important technologies are the following: (87)

• Convergence of data and voice communications and mobile access to enterprise systems

• Networking: wireless, VPN, other options

• Multi-channel customer and management

• E-commerce, m-commerce: payments, security, partner interface

• Supply chain

• Sales and distribution: forecasting, support

• Virtual organization and teleworkers

• Knowledge management

George Washington University and Future of Technologies

Furthermore, we are actually going through a Technology Revolution as described by George Washington University Technology Future study. The futurists at GWU expressed in most vivid terms how the vision of the new technologies will shape the world and IT. These technologies and innovations will become the necessary components for distributed capitalism and value based organizations of tomorrow.

Science and technology are essentially accumulations of knowledge, and the information revolution is magnifying our ability to create and share technical knowledge. The result is that IT has become a major factor enabling unusually rapid technical developments, therefore accelerating advances in all fields. For instance, science has been transformed as networks of researchers are able to collaborate regardless of geography. IT-enabled research organizations are evolving into new forms that speed up investigations. Major advances in the field of information processing, for example, can have direct effects in others areas, such as managing the huge amount of data flowing from the Human Genome Project. At the same time that technical prowess grows, uncertainty over its social assimilation persists. Technological advances do not occur in a vacuum but are shaped by social forces. For instance, industry recognizes that the acceptance of new technologies is driven by consumer awareness, needs, lifestyles, values, and a host of other market factors. For example, while the Internet continues to expand at phenomenal rates, results from the Information Services field show that we should not expect major changes in IT services very soon. The least conservative estimate -- entertainment on-demand -- is not expected until late 2000, while half of all goods in the U.S. sold through information services may arrive in 2020. Similarly, while search engine technology on the World Wide Web is advancing, we will not see intelligent software agents in routine use until 2009. Personal digital assistants (PDAs) will not be adopted by the majority of people until 2008. Personal computers may soon be able to incorporate television, telephone, and interactive video but our panel did not see this or a Web-TV with telephone capabilities in wide use until 2005 or 2006.

Software also has a long way to go. Expert systems, once heralded as then undeniable decision-making software for the 1990s, have a major chance of finding routine use by 2010. Computer programs that can learn and adjust their own programming will not be commonly available until 2012. Language translation software has a similar fate, not achieving widespread practical use until 2012. A standard digital protocol that would allow more advanced global networking applications is not expected until 2006. And while citizens are heralding the Internet and the World Wide Web, most people will not have access to the information superhighway until 2008.

In other fields, such as medicine, responses were more optimistic. Computerized medical information systems including provisions for home and self-care could be commonly used in the general population by 2007. Holistic health practices are becoming more accepted and will be well integrated in medicine by 2009. Gene therapy will help eradicate inherited diseases by 2013. Organ replacement strategies will become routine, by growing genetically similar or cloned organs or making synthetic organs, in the years 2018 and 2019, respectively. By 2008, genetic engineering and its accompanying regulatory regime should have changed to allow the routine production of new strains of plants and animals.

As the information revolution proceeds into the 21st Century, major advances in information technology will occur. As the IT fields mature, the effects will begin to permeate all fields and industries. Multimedia interconnectivity will be the theme for the first decade, allowing people to interact seamlessly across information mediums and geographic borders. Virtual reality and large flat panel displays will take the place of the computer monitor, allowing simultaneous viewing of several applications at once, virtual meetings, and group collaboration. On-line communities will have grown from text-based chat-rooms to three-dimensional, real-time realities. Education, entertainment and virtual tourism will enter a new era, and the consumer will have nearly unlimited choices. Electronic commerce and banking will be the currency of choice in developed countries as the cashless society is realized. Sophisticated software will aid consumers and professionals by providing intelligent agents to filter news and mail. Expert systems may finally see routine use as surrogate doctors, lawyers, and other professionals. These systems will be remotely accessed, not bought as stand-alone software, and updated continuously. Software will run on microprocessors imbedded in household products, walls and automobiles. Modular programming and a common language for computer communication will lead to ubiquitous computer-enhanced environments. While the amazing advances in information technology will steal many headlines, medical breakthroughs will compete for the news.

The early 2010 CTO will witness the most striking technological advances in terms of number and scope that our civilization has seen. Information technology will be taken for granted and IT-enabled activities involving working, learning, shopping, publishing, and leisure will become a way of life, much the way automobiles became a way of life a few decades after their introduction. Computers themselves will begin to emulate the human brain in sensory recognition and thought processing. Neural networks, biochips, and artificial intelligence may finally reach fruition as computing speeds and parallel architectures are applied and exploited. The interconnections of technology during this decade will transform developed societies in ways similar to the agrarian and industrial revolutions. Information technology innovations will allow parents to check on their kids, farmers to check on their crops, states to check on their criminals, and meteorologists to check on the weather. Our ability to manipulate matter will change, as nanotechnology becomes the new enabling technology for the remainder of the century. (44)

Business Week Predictions of New Technologies

Business Week - Innovation 2004

Business Week covered the latest trends and predictions: (14)

Voice over up

JetBlue Airways Corp. has invested in a new technology called "voice over IP," which lets corporate data networks handle phone traffic using Internet protocols. It also allows its reservation operators to take customer calls from home.

RFID

Buyers also are getting excited about newly emerging technologies that promise to make their operations more efficient. Wal-Mart Stores is making a big investment in radio-frequency identification (RFID) chips, which will allow it and its suppliers to track goods all the way from the factory to the checkout counter. Such tracking is expected to reduce theft and other losses, cut the number of people in warehouses and stores who must track goods, and boost sales.

Consumer smart phones

Less than 12 percent of the world's population has a PC, and, even with Net-connected cell phones and Internet caf s, just 13 percent are on the Web. One example of the new products: smart phones that are in every way computers, with Web connections and cameras. Gartner Dataquest expects revenues from such products to jump 140 percent this year, to $4.9 billion.

Computing Power and Servers

Innovation is full speed ahead. By 2005, IBM is expected to make a huge leap in performance that will break Moore's Law, stating that chip speeds double every 18 months. That's when Big Blue will unveil Blue Gene, a supercomputer faster than today's top 500 supercomputers combined. And Sun is also working on so-called "throughput computers" that cram the equivalent of eight huge servers onto a single chip -- an advance that could boost the power of big Internet servers fifteen fold by mid-decade.

Engineers are creating cutting-edge machines using commodity, industry-standard building blocks. Computer makers have a running start at building state-of-the-art machines. Now, they are able to focus and solve other problems—from developing self-healing computers to packing more power into ever smaller devices—by letting advances in automated maintenance made by its 1,200-person mainframe R&D team filter down to its lower-end machines.

Blade Computers

Companies end up buying lots of Windows base computers, and spend loads of dough getting them to work together. For every $1 spent on new equipment, operating costs run $3, according to IDC. Imagine if all those servers could be shrunk down to the size of a legal pad and stacked inside one console like books on a bookshelf. That's the main idea behind blade servers. This lets companies fit far more computing into far less space, cutting real estate requirements as well as the monthly electricity bill. All told, blades can reduce operating costs by 25 percent, according to blade pioneer RLX Technologies. Dell and IBM only recently began shipping blade computers, so sales are just ramping up. The market for blades is expected to grow from 150,000 units in 2003 to 1.9 million in 2007.

The first chips will be in the form of a blade server, due out in 2005. The chip may sound like science fiction, but consider this: Thanks in part to Moore's Law, it will be possible to get 500 million transistors on one sliver of silicon by 2005, and 1 billion by the end of the decade.

Grid Computing

Grid technology is designed to make the most of underused computing power. Companies are beginning to use grid software to plug into computing power on the Internet or private networks as easily as electricity can be drawn from the power grid. It's technology management on a grand scale. The software constantly monitors the network, searching for computers that could help run a job that may be overwhelming the company's own computers. It then slices up the job into small portions so all the machines can help.

Throughput Computing

It's working on a new class of computers based on a radical concept called "throughput computing." While most servers are designed to run a single task as fast as possible, Sun's idea is to develop computers that can run far more jobs at the same time. To achieve that, it intends to cram the guts of eight of today's servers into a single piece of silicon. Throughput computing could be perfect for Internet servers that must handle thousands of requests quickly, from Google searches to music downloads to complex business transactions

Flexible Computers

Among the concepts made possible by Moore's Law is the idea of nearly reconfigurable chips. Today's jack-of-all-trades chips are designed to handle some tasks well, while doing passable work on other chores. These new chips and the computers they would power would be able to morph by the millisecond, depending on what the computer is being asked to do. One such effort is a research project at the University of Texas called the Polymorphous TRIPS architecture. Each instruction received from a program gives hints as to the nature of the task. The chips come pre-loaded with various plans, each designed for a particular type of job. The chip is divvied up into 100 tiny panels, each of which can be programmed to take different forms, say either memory or networking circuits. The computer's software analyzes program instructions as they flow in, arranging the panels on each chip in the best way to handle the task at hand, like a never-ending game of electronic musical chairs. If a video clip is called up, for example, the memory circuits would be reprogrammed as networking circuits. That way, the clip would be sped on its way, rather than delayed sitting in memory.

Prototypes aren't due out until 2005. IBM, Intel, Sun, and Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) are investors in the project, but there's no certainty such chips will get to market. If it works, TRIPS chips could bring supercomputer-class power to everyday products, from game consoles to home medical imaging equipment. (14)

Business Week also demonstrated significant new emerging technology advances. (13)

• NANOTECH -Molecular machines In the 2020s, we may be able to buy a "recipe" over the Net, insert plastic and conductive molecules into your "nanobox," and have it spit out a computer.

• ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Superbrains born of silicon will change everything. Previously intractable problems in science, engineering, and medicine will be a snap. Robots will rapidly displace humans in factories and farms.

• QUANTUM COMPUTERS-The toughest problems will be solved with a roll of the dice. Physicists hope to use subatomic particles' imprecise nature to answer questions beyond the reach of today's computers

• GENES-Automatic assembly of genetic pieces in jigsaw puzzle As biology's deepest mysteries are finally revealed, medicine will be the first beneficiary. New drugs that conquer Alzheimer's disease, vaccines to wipe out AIDS, and crops packing vaccines will be among the fruits of these discoveries.

• LIFESTYLE-The nomads shall inherit the airport lounge. The 21st century belongs to the fleet of foot. Technology has not freed road warriors like John Gruetzner from the constraints of travel. It has freed him from staying at home.

Finally, this section shares Batelle Future's predictions, and their vision of top strategic technology areas. (3)

Batelle-The Top Strategic Technologies

• Human genome mapping and genetic-based personal identification and diagnostics will lead to preventive treatment of diseases and cures for specific cancers.

• Super materials. Computer-based design and manufacturing of new materials at the molecular level will mean new, high-performance materials for use in transportation, computers, energy, and communications.

• Compact, long-lasting and highly portable energy sources, including fuel cells and batteries will power electronic devices of the future, such as portable personal computers.

• Digital high definition television. This important breakthrough for American manufacturers—and major source of revenue—will lead to better advanced computer modeling and imaging.

• Electronic miniaturization for personal use. Interactive, wireless data centers in a pocket calculator-size will provide users with a fax machine, telephone, and computer capable of storing all the volumes in their local library.

• Cost-effective "smart systems" will integrate power, sensors, and controls. They eventually will control the manufacturing process from beginning to end.

• Anti-aging products that rely on genetic information to slow the aging process will include aging creams that really work.

• Medical treatments will use highly accurate sensors to locate problems, and drug delivery systems will precisely target parts of the body, such as chemotherapy, targeted specifically to cancer cells to reduce the side effects of nausea and hair loss.

• Hybrid fuel vehicles. Smart vehicles, equipped to operate on a variety of fuels, will select the appropriate fuel based on driving conditions.

• Edutainment. Educational games and computerized simulations will meet the sophisticated tastes of computer-literate students.

• Genetaceuticals. Genetics-based medical treatments will cure or mitigate the effects of various human diseases and disorders, including pharmaceutical treatments for osteoporosis, MS, cystic fibrosis, Lou Gehrig's disease, and Alzheimer's.

• Personalized Computers. Your personal computer at home and in your office will be replaced by a very powerful "personalized" computer. It will recognize your voice and follow your voice commands, and it will include a variety of security and service tools to personalize the computer for its individual owner. The personalized computer will be as mobile and versatile as its user, sending and receiving wireless data and accessing information from remote sites.

• Multi-Fuel Automobiles. To obtain maximum efficiency and meet stringent environmental standards, vehicles will use combinations of various fuels, such as reformulated gasoline, electricity, and natural gas. Vehicles may carry more than one fuel type, with an on-board computer that will conduct on-going analyses of travel conditions to calculate fuel mixtures for maximum fuel efficiency and performance.

• Next Generation TV. In ten years, our television set will be large and flat and will hang on the wall much like a large painting. It will be a digital, high-definition model with clarity approaching that of a movie screen. This TV will be much more than just an entertainment device--it will also be used as a computer monitor capable of networking with other computers as an interactive, videoconferencing device.

• Cyber cash. Electronic money will be used for everything from buying soda in a vending machine to making an international transaction over your computer. Pockets will rarely jingle in ten years as credit card-sized smart cards begin to replace cash, as well as house and car keys.

• Home health monitors. These devices will be simple-to-use, non-invasive, and relatively inexpensive for use in monitoring health conditions at home. Many physical functions--liver functions, ovulation, levels of cholesterol, triglycerides, sugar, hormones, water, salt, and potassium--may be monitored as easily as weight is now tracked by bathroom scales.

• Smart maps and tracking devices. Getting "there" will be decidedly easier with the widespread use of Global Positioning Systems-"smart" maps that will show travelers, boaters, and hikers their exact position and direction. Global positioning systems also will be used to help prevent crime by tracking the exact location of cars and other valuables. People also will be able to track the exact location of their children and even their pets.

• Smart materials. New materials for construction and other uses will be able to give off warnings when they detect excessive stress. For instance, materials in bridges or office buildings could change color before conditions become unsafe. Automobile parts could give a similar warning when approaching the point of breakdown.

• Weight-control and anti-aging products. Though no Fountain of Youth is on the horizon, new products will make aging a little less traumatic. These new developments may include weight-control drugs that use the body's natural weight-control mechanisms, wrinkle creams that actually work, foods with enhanced nutrients, and an effective cure for baldness. Many of these developments will come from genetic research.

• Never-owned products. Major household appliances, such as furnaces, air conditioners, washers, dryers, and water heaters will be leased instead of purchased. This trend will be spurred by environmental concerns and regulations, cost, and the increasing speed of technology, which causes products to become obsolete quickly.

• Genetic-based Medical and Health Care. Over the next 20 years, we will witness an explosion of medical technology originating from genetic research, giving us the ability to detect and correct many genetic-based diseases before they arise-possibly even in the womb. A wide range of new pharmaceuticals that originated from genetic research will come onto the market in the next 20 years, leading to treatments, cures, and preventive measures for a host of ailments. They may range from treatments for life-threatening diseases to psychological disorders to cosmetic problems. Most incredible, some of these treatments will be personalized to meet the unique needs of an individual's genetic makeup. It will really be the ultimate in individualized care."

• High-power energy packages. Developments such as highly advanced batteries, inexpensive fuel cells, and micro-generators of electricity will make many of our electronic products and appliances highly mobile. Decentralized power sources will be extensive, affordable, and environmentally clean. These new, high-power, distributed energy systems will provide backup if not primary energy sources for appliances, homes, and vehicles. In the transition to fuel cells, we will see further improvements in batteries-perhaps linked with solar power-and small generators fueled by natural gas.

• GrinTech (Green Integrated Technology). Global crowding, fears of global climate change, and mountains of garbage will thrust environmental concerns to the forefront of consumers and industry around the world. Technology will provide the answers, with new systems that eliminate rather than reduce waste. GrinTech will be especially important in agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and transportation systems.

• Omnipresent Computing. Computers will be everywhere. We will be in constant contact with very miniature, wireless, highly mobile, powerful, and highly personalized computing with network access. Such computers may first appear on the market as watches or jewelry with the power of a computer and cellular phone. Later, we will have computers embedded in our clothing and possibly implanted under our skin.

• Nanomachines. Microscopic machines, measured in atoms rather than millimeters, will revolutionize several industries and may perform a wide range of jobs for us-from heating our homes to curing cancer. Battelle researchers see the medical industry as the most important area for nanomachine technology by 2020. We may be able to develop nanomachines that will go into your body and find and destroy individual cancer cells while not harming healthy cells. Nanomachines also could be used to deliver drugs to highly localized places in the body, to clean arteries, and to repair the heart, brain, and other organs without surgery.

• Personalized Public Transportation. The continuing growth of cities will further stress our transportation infrastructure. Yet, Battelle researchers say an aging population with concerns about safety, convenience, and independence will help maintain a high demand for personal vehicles. The challenge is to integrate many individual cars within a coordinated and optimized public transportation network. Technology will help us turn our cars into what will almost be personalized public transportation. New information technology in your car will work with a central traffic control system to guide you through the quickest route to your destination. Traffic jams and road rage will decline substantially as people drive their cars to remote parking areas and take highly advanced-and comfortable-trains into central cities and between cities.

• Designer Foods and Crops. Grocery store shelves will be filled with genetically engineered foods that are environmentally friendly and highly nutritious. Through genetic engineering, researchers will develop crops that resist diseases and pests, greatly reducing the need for pesticides and other chemicals. Battelle predicts that most food sold in supermarkets will come from genetically engineered fruits, vegetables, and livestock. Nearly all cotton and wool for our clothing will be genetically engineered. Even lawns could be genetically engineered to need less fertilizer and pesticide and-best yet-grow more slowly.

• Intelligent Goods and Appliances. Advances in quantum computing will lead to smaller, more powerful computers and electronics that will add amazing intelligence to appliances and other products. These products will likely include telephones with extensive phone directories, intelligent food packaging that tells your oven how to cook the food inside, refrigerators that help make out your shopping list and tell you where to get the best price on the food you need, and maybe even a toaster that won't burn your toast.

• Worldwide Inexpensive and Safe Water. Within the next 20 years, clean drinking water could become an expensive commodity around the world. However, before water shortages become critical, technology will answer the challenge, with advanced filtering, processing, and delivery of potable water. Desalination of water and water extraction from the air are two possibilities.

• Super Senses. One of the hot technologies today is virtual reality. In 20 years, though, we will be marveling over "enhanced reality." Using sensors and electronic or genetic technology, we will be able to implant devices that will allow us to hear better than ever before or see farther or in the dark. (3)