Notes

Many books have been written recently regarding alternative approaches to reasoning about uncertainty. Shafer [1976] provides a good introduction to the Dempster -Shafer approach; Klir and Folger [1988] provide a good introduction to fuzzy logic; [Shafer and Pearl 1990] contains a good overview of a number of approaches.

There are numerous discussions of the subtleties in probabilistic reasoning. A particularly good one is given by Bar-Hillel and Falk [1982], who discuss the second-ace puzzle (and the related three-prisoners puzzle, discussed in Section 3.3). Freund [1965] and Shafer [1985] also discuss the second-ace puzzle. The Monty Hall puzzle is also an old problem [Mosteller 1965]; it has generated a great deal of discussion since it was discussed by vos Savant in Parade Magazine [1990]. Morgan et al. [1991] provide an interesting counterpoint to vos Savant's discussion. The two-coin problem is discussed in [Fagin and Halpern 1994]; the one-coin problem is discussed in [Halpern and Tuttle 1993]. Sutton and Barto [1998] discuss exploration vs. exploitation.

See the notes at the ends of later chapters for more references on the specific subjects discussed in these chapters.