Autonomic Computing - page 84

NOTES

1. G.E. Moore, "Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits," Electronics , 38:8 (April 19, 1965), available at http://www.intel.com/research/silicon/moorespaper.pdf.

2. The Revolution in Information Technology . Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan before the Boston College Conference on the New Economy. Boston, Massachusetts, March 6, 2000.

3. Commerce Department Study, The Emerging Digital Economy II . U.S. Government Publication.

4. Data from the U.S. Census Bureau report. See http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/current.html.

Chapter 6. HUMAN CAPITAL

INTRODUCTION

In the last 50 years of the 20th century, the nation has witnessed momentous changes in the size , composition, and characteristics of the U.S. labor force. The same social, demographic, and economic forces that influenced the growth and composition of the labor force during the past 50 years will continue to influence the workforce in the decades ahead. Chief among those influences has been information technology, which has brought so much automation, along with communications networks, speed, and the ability to produce goods and services for the global marketplace .

Another part of the growth of the labor force in the past 50 years has been the so-called Baby Boom generation. This Baby Boom swelled the ranks of the labor force during the past three decades, and their exit will have a profound impact on the labor force during the next two decades. Boomers will remain a force of change even in their retirement. A large portion of the current IT workforce can be categorized as Boomers, who grew up with the emerging computer technology during this time. They have embraced all aspects of computer technology.

The productivity enhancements of IT have been significant for the labor force. The impact has been felt in increased standards of living and the creation of a society that is the envy of most countries in the world.

U.S. POPULATION GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT TRENDS

The U.S. population is expected to increase by 24 million between the years 2000–2010, a slightly faster rate of growth than between 1990–2000 but slower than from 1980–1990. Continued growth is good news for the IT industry, as it will mean more consumers of goods and services, spurring demand for workers in a wide range of occupations and industries driven by computer systems. The effects of population growth on various occupations will differ . The differences are partially accounted for by the age distribution of the future population.

Population is the single most important factor in determining the size and composition of the labor force, which is comprised of people who are either working or looking for work. The civilian labor force is projected to increase by 17 million, or 12 percent, to 158 million between 2000–2010.

Total employment is expected to increase from 146 million in 2000 to 168 million in 2010, a rate of 15.2 percent. The 22 million jobs that will be added by 2010 will not be evenly distributed across major industrial and occupational groups. Changes in consumer demand, technology, and many other factors will contribute to the continually changing employment structure in the U.S. economy.

Analysis of trends indicates that services and communications will be two sectors where the biggest expansion will occur, leading to many new jobs in both areas.

• Services : This is the largest and fastest growing major industry group . It is expected to add 13.7 million new jobs by 2010, accounting for three out of every five new jobs created in the U.S. economy. Over two- thirds of this projected job growth is concentrated in three sectors of the service industry: business, health, and social services. Business services—including personnel supply services, and computer and IT processing services—will add 5.1 million jobs. However, employment in computer and data processing services—which provide prepackaged and specialized software, data, and computer systems design and management, and computer- related consulting services—is projected to grow by 86 percent between 2000 and 2010, ranking as the fastest growing industry in the economy. Health services—including home health care services, hospitals , and offices of health practitioners —will add 2.8 million new jobs, as demand for health care increases due to an aging population and longer life expectancies.

• Communications : Employment in the communications sector is expected to increase by 16.9 percent, adding 277,000 jobs by 2010. Half of these new jobs—139,000—will be in the telephone communications industry; however, cable and other pay television will be the fastest growing segment of the sector over the next decade , with employment expanding by 50.6 percent. Increased demand for residential and business wireless services, cable service, and high-speed Internet connections will fuel the growth in communications industries.

Figure 6.1 graphically illustrates the projected changes in employment trends. Services, which are mainly comprised of IT, will be the fastest growing industry in the United States.