Disruptive Technology

From Figure 4, we see that newer disruptive technologies are being adopted in shorter intervals. ^[14]

Figure 4: Technology Adoption Rates

Contrasting the adoption rate for the Internet seen in Figure 4, in Table 7, we see that wireless narrowband communications took significantly longer to reach 50 million users.

Table 7: Wireless Narrowband Adoption Rates

Year	1984	1986	1990	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002
Subscribers	0.085	0.265	5.3	24.2	33.8	44	55	69	86	109	127	144
Sources: Statistical Abstract of the U.S., ITU, CTIA.

This lag in wireless narrowband adoption rates was principally due to the relatively high fees carriers charged end users, limiting this market to only business users for a significant period of time. However, from 1997 to 2001, after the introduction of the "Digital One Rate" plans, subscriber growth exploded from 55 million subscribers to over 120 million. This adoption rate for narrowband wireless should indicate to the carriers that the significant driver in this market might also pertain to the broadband wireless market. Clearly with computer and Internet usage growing as rapidly as it is, a properly priced mobile/portable wireless access medium would likely be appealing to many subscribers (see also Table 8).

Table 8: Important Worldwide Trends and Indicators

Category	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2002 Est.
Main telephone lines (millions)	520	546	574	606	645	692	740	794	848	906	970	1115
Mobile wireless subscribers (millions)	11	16	23	34	55	91	145	214	319	472	650	1000
Personal computers (millions)	120	130	150	170	190	230	260	320	370	430	500	670
Internet users (millions)	2.6	4.4	6.9	9.4	16	34	54	90	149	230	311	500
Source: International Telecommunications Union, 2000 (www.itu.org).

^[14]Christensen, C. (1997). The innovator's dilemma. Harvard Business School Press. This book provides excellent insight into the realm of disruptive technologies and demonstrates how they can quickly appear and capture entire markets. Note that the book is misnamed. It is actually not the innovator's dilemma, but everyone else's.