Tool 176: Scenario Writing

AKA

Scenario Construction

Classification

Changing/Implementing (CI)

Tool description

The scenario writing technique is a process of forecasting some future state by examining the details and interactions of different events of change. As in gap analysis, the process starts with the status quo and moves to a desirable end state, identifying the required actions to get there.

Typical application

• To forecast and write a description of a future state.

• To hypothesize how continuous change will affect future events.

• To imagine the actual conditions that will exist at some future date.

Problem-solving phase

	Select and define problem or opportunity
→	Identify and analyze causes or potential change
→	Develop and plan possible solutions or change
	Implement and evaluate solution or change
	Measure and report solution or change results
	Recognize and reward team efforts

Typically used by

	Research/statistics
1	Creativity/innovation
	Engineering
	Project management
	Manufacturing
2	Marketing/sales
	Administration/documentation
	Servicing/support
	Customer/quality metrics
3	Change management

links to other tools

before

• Gap Analysis

• Case Study

• Force Field Analysis

• Mental Imaging

• Trend Analysis

after

• Opportunity Analysis

• Cost-Benefit Analysis

• Consensus Decision Making

• Countermeasures Matrix

• Variance Analysis

Step-by-step procedure

• STEP 1 A team decides to construct a scenario for the present organization, such as a description of the organization in the year 2002. See example Futuring the Learning Organization.

• STEP 2 Participant discuss probable events and changes leading up to the future state of the organization.

• STEP 3 To more accurately forecast a realistic picture of the future organization, a list of specific considerations is developed, as shown in this example.

• STEP 4 Lastly, the desired end state is summarized. This written scenario of the future organization could be very useful in the visioning and planning process.

Example of tool application

Futuring the Learning Organization