The Fourth Wave

The first wave of computing addressed back-office transactions; it was a simple number- crunching business. The second wave provided interactive tools for office work. With the introduction of the personal computer, the architecture also shifted from a central host to the so-called client/server model. The third wave allowed everyone to access and exchange information. Three-tier architecture emerged to overcome the limitations of two- tier architecture. One of the most prominent applications of the third wave is the Internet.

The fourth wave will transfer everyday work from people to machines. It will multiply the time and reach of everyone, and initiate an explosion of machine-to-machine negotiation, problem-solving, and transactions. With the recent emergence of smart applications, it has become obvious that the computer is not a machine whose main purpose is to get a computing task done. With its attendant peripherals and networks, the computer has become a machine that allows us to explore new capacities to communicate, reaching new audiences in ways previously unthinkable.

The fourth wave will empower appliances with built-in computing and communication abilities that will make them work smarter on our behalf . Computing as we know it will transform into a computer-supported collaborative effort rather than a solitary one.

This revolution in computer usage will be unleashed by founding computing architecture around knowledge of the user, giving the user the capability to delegate work to computers; thus, computing functionality will begin in the interface the user accesses to various devices; work will be tasked from this interface to various computers, applications, and intelligent agents distributed around the world on the Internet or its successors.

This transition will exploit several technological trends already underway, including advances in Web services, communications, interfaces, information processing, and agents. Demands for computing, storage, bandwidth, and management will soar. Though the technology will be more complex, it will become increasingly invisible, as it disappears into our new communicators , problem-solvers, personal assistants, and living spaces.

Smart appliances and intelligent agents will change the way we work and live by working for us . Here are just a few ways it will affect the industry:

• Telecommunications and utility companies will automate location information to route the closest engineer to a customer.

• Insurance agents will download and complete forms on their PDAs and submit them via wireless connections to expedite on-scene accident assessments.

• Once privacy and security issues are resolved, mobile banking will become commonplace.

• Doctors' offices and hospitals will process forms and prescriptions using Internet appliances, to be able to treat patients more quickly.

To begin to understand where this revolution will take us, just look at TiVo ^[1] , which records TV programs that match your interests and delivers them to you whenever you want. Using similar technology, here are a few simple examples of how agents and smart appliances will affect our homes :

^[1] http://www.tivo.com/

• Personal assistant software will keep track of birthdays and anniversaries for you, then suggest gift purchases for people as these special dates approach.

• Automated travel agents will know what types of vacations you like and when you like to take them, and they'll find them at the best prices.

• Bots will actively manage your liquid assets, achieving 50-percent better cash management through continuous monitoring of rates across various Internet-enabled financial institutions.

• Washing machines will determine when it is cheapest to wash based on water and energy prices, initiate contracts with energy suppliers, even start your laundry at the specified time. Other appliances will suggest and prepare your dinners, drive your carthe list goes on.

This book is called Radical Simplicity because new technologies have the power to achieve the ultimate simplification of technology: Make it disappear into the devices and appliances that do for us what we want them to.