Results

We are confident that the vast majority of publicly accessible project management research that has been published in the English language between 1960 and 1999 is included in this annotated database of 3,554 records. The methods used to construct the database are described above, as well as the limitations to its completeness. We feel that it is as complete as possible given the amount of time and money we had to use. Another part of the research was to begin analyzing the database contents. The research team makes no claim that this is a comprehensive analysis; rather it is a starting point for other project management researchers. Our fervent hope is that the trends, the comparisons among PMBOK Guide knowledge areas, and the predictions made serve to inspire other researchers to dig deeper. This, after all, represents forty years worth of research and it would be presumptuous for us to attempt to identify and interpret every important trend.

The Xavier/TDG Project Team utilized a number of techniques in analyzing the data gathered for determining trends and interpreting the data. The team members spent many hours compiling and evaluating the data to identify, catalog, and classify the research citations, extract the issues and trends, and understand the message in the data. However, in addition to determining major issues and finding trends in the literature, the team wanted to involve more academics and practitioners in the interpretation process to validate the information from a "real-world" perspective. Our goal was to understand the environment and circumstances surrounding the past research and to develop an understandable portrayal of how the theory and practice of project management has evolved, where it is going, and in what direction it should be going. To that end, the Project Management Current and Future Trends Executive Seminar was held. This seminar was the first of its kind. The event was more of a workshop than a seminar, in that the participants actively made the process flow and were the source of the output from the process. The team provided the raw material input, acted as a catalyst and process facilitator, and the participants took it from there. It was a very rewarding effort. The following discussion specifically addresses the results from the seminar. The research results are reported as trends, commonalties between knowledge areas, differences between knowledge areas, predicted future directions, recommended future directions, and "potential best article candidates."

Trends

Some very important trend information emerged as we went through this process. Most notably was the lack of research, and for that matter, lack of literature on project management in the 1960s. We found only 1 percent of the research citations occurred during that decade. See Table 12 for more detail on this and other trends.

Table 12: Observed Trends from the Final Database

As observed with each individual knowledge areas, research in project management has increased substantially over the decades.
The break-up percentage of citations in each decade is as follows:
1960s	1%
1970s	7%
1980s	29%
1990s	60%
The number citations in each knowledge area have also followed the trend available in the seminar results with the greatest number of citations being in Time and Cost. The break-up is as under:
Integration	5%
Scope	5%
Time	24%
Cost	28%
Quality	12%
Procurement'	4%
HR	4%
Communications	8%
Risk	10%
For the process areas, planning has the maximum number of articles, with the least importance on execution.
Plan	29%
Lead/Direct	17%
Control	23%
Execute	1%
Improve	14%
If we consider the industry-wise distribution, construction, and information technology are the most written about by far.
Construction	21%
Information Systems	21%
Utilities	3%
R&D	4%
Manufacturing	5%
Education	8%
Telecommunications	1%
In the Government area, the following is the breakout of articles:
NASA	3%
Defense	11%
Aerospace	1%
Military	3%
Government	7%
Note: The total number of articles used to derive these figures is 3,554. The database may have been negligibly modified after these trends have been developed. Most of these figures will overlap with one another, when used in conjunction with other parameters. Due care has been taken to ensure accuracy of figures. However, due to the enormous possibilities of keywords in the abstract for one topic, a small margin of error may be possible.

In the 1970s, there was a trend toward the development and use of automated project management software. Also during that period, there were a number of research citations related to the use of the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). The focus of research during this period was on cost and schedule control, performance measurement, the use of Work Breakdown Structures (WBSs), and life-cycle management. Government still sponsored a large number of the research projects in the literature, but the number of projects sponsored commercially or by educational institutions increased. Toward the end of the 1970s, the concept of design-to-cost and life-cycle costing first appeared in the research literature. This became very common in the 1980s particularly in the government and defense sectors. In addition, the research literature included several research studies in the late '70s related to leadership and conflict management in projects.

In the 1980s, the volume of research projects in the literature increased significantly (29 percent of the total articles). The research literature continued to focus on design-to-cost and life-cycle costing, plus a number of studies were reviewed on project management computerized systems. Research on project risk management and the Cost/Schedule Control Systems Criteria (C/SCSC) and earned value appeared in the literature. Additional research subjects included team building and quality management. The initial reporting on the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI)/Expert Systems and Knowledge-Based Systems (KBS) appeared.

In the 1990s, a large number of research projects focused on the human resource aspects including team building, leadership development, and motivation. There were also quite a few articles concerning the risk management, quality management, and communications knowledge areas of the PMBOK Guide.

Commonality between Knowledge Areas

Perhaps the single most important trend that was observed as a commonality among all the areas of project management was the increase in literature on project management issues. For most knowledge areas, there was a paucity of research in the 1960s and the 1970s. The research increased significantly in the 1980s and expanded in the 1990s. One reason for this is that the importance of project management as a profession started to be widely realized only in the 1980s. Also, more and more companies have been coming out of the regulated mode of functioning. As non-regulated companies, they now face stiffer competition, which requires the use of project management, and they are now able to disclose more information than they could previously.

The dominant application areas described in the project management literature are construction, information systems, and the utilities industries. This result is not surprising, since engineering and construction firms have long been the masters of project management. However, in the case of information systems, the literature has started expanding only in the 1990s. The influx of hundreds of computer software programs that address the issues of project management in general, and each knowledge area specifically has been observed.

The government was an early adopter of project management and, hence, we found numerous articles about the government in the different knowledge areas. In the period of 1960 through 1990 the following trends were observed:

• Cost/Schedule Emphasis

• Systems Analysis/Structured Design

• Systems Management

• Procurement/Contract Administration Focus

• Value Engineering

• Earned Value and C/SCSC.

  In the period of 1990 through 2000 the following trends have been observed:

• Increased focus on competency and commitment

• Increased focus on interpersonal/behavioral aspects

• Increased emphasis on stakeholder identification and management

• Increased emphasis on communications and communications planning

• Increased emphasis on performance measurement to specifications/objectives and benefits

• Change to project management as a career path

• Increasing focus on standards and certification

• DoD certification (Acquisition Management)

• Defense Extension to the PMBOK Guide

• Interest in PMI Certificates of Added Qualification (CAQ)

• Increased interest in using the PMBOK Guide as a basis for training (American National Standard—American National Standards Institute [ANSI])

• Broad interest by government agencies besides the DoD.

In regards to the processes in project management, the trend was toward planning and control. This was attributed to the complexity of project management and the need to plan efficiently and carefully each aspect of the project and then monitor it to ensure it functions as planned.

Some studies also focused on the relation of one knowledge area of project management with several other knowledge areas, specifically how they would work in conjunction with each other. For instance, many authors have emphasized how important it is that time and cost management work in synergy, while keeping in mind the risk factors.

Differences among Knowledge Areas

There were various differences spotted among the project management knowledge areas. There were very few research-based articles dealing with project integration management. Most of the articles we originally found in integration were opinion based. There were also very few articles concerning project procurement management. The opposite was found in project scope management. As firms have become more competitive, an increased demand for quality has led practitioners to recognize the importance of developing solid scope statements before they perform any other function. Hence, a great deal of literature relating to scope can be found. Project cost and project time management were also widely investigated areas.

Also, the types of articles found differed for each knowledge area. In the case of project human resource management, most of the project management publications are case studies or "expert accounts" rather than empirical studies based on systematic data gathering and analysis. In the case of time and cost, most articles relate to the tools, techniques, and methodologies adopted. For procurement, there is an emphasis on the operational aspects, such as contracting. Large numbers of articles were found for each of the management functions that are traditionally associated with quality such as planning, control, and improvement.

Predicted Future Directions

Based upon the identified trends, the project management practitioners and professors predicted future directions for project management research both in each specific PMBOK Guide knowledge area and for project management in general. A few of the predictions are listed below:

• The most frequently considered future trend was support for increased standardization. Standardization of processes and tools, as well as standardization of terminology, are expected to contribute to project management success.

• Practitioners predict a greater use of web technologies for enterprise communication and collaboration.

• Contracts will contain specific language requiring the use of generally accepted project management practices and philosophies.

• There will be more outsourcing of project management by major companies.

• Nontraditional projects dealing with volunteers, resources, and fundraising campaigns will increase.

• The project manager's role will evolve to demonstrate more leadership than project management. Advanced training for project managers will be offered through companies, universities, and professional organizations.

• There will be movement away from super projects.

• There will be refinements in how project scope is defined and related to business requirements and measurable benefits.

• Project selection and prioritization of projects will continue to evolve as a large issue for both government and industry.

• There will be increased emphasis on formal project management training and certification, and verification of what training really works.

• There will be more emphasis on risk management in general and specific training for project managers on risk identification, contingency planning, risk mitigation, and managing risk events.

• There will be increasing focus on communications and communications planning, particularly as it relates to stakeholder management and communications in times of project crisis.

Recommended Future Directions

The project management practitioners were then asked to consider their work demands and identify additional research that they felt would be useful to them. These are listed below:

• Case studies that illustrate the application of knowledge-based systems for project management should be developed.

• Standards and benchmarks should be developed similar to the ANSI standards in the computer industry.

• More universities should create programs that allow students to major in project management and there should be methods to coordinate and benchmark between these universities.

• Techniques and presentation methods for determining and reporting return on investment analysis and measurement should be developed.

"Preliminary Best Article Candidates"

The professors who facilitated the workshop sessions identified articles that they felt potentially were very useful in project management research. This was a very subjective screening based solely upon abstracts. There was no attempt to define what a "seminal" or even "best" article should entail. Neither was there any effort to rank order the importance of these articles. There may be other articles that deserve to be on a best article list. The professors used these articles to stimulate discussion among the practitioners during the workshop. Toward the end of the workshop each practitioner was allowed to vote for up to ten articles that he felt were the most useful. The five articles that received the most votes in each knowledge area are listed in Table 13. Where there was a the for fifth place all articles receiving the same number of votes were included. This list is absolutely not meant to be a definitive list. Rather it is meant to encourage project management researchers to identify additional articles they feel should be on a best article list and state the contribution made by that article that they feel merits consideration. Even more fundamentally, we hope this preliminary work will serve as a catalyst for discussion aimed at defining the contributions an article should make to be considered a "best project management research article." Our hope is that this simple start will generate a great deal of discussion and even controversy.

Table 13: "Best Article Candidates"

Knowledge Areas	Title	Author	Journal Name	Year
Communication	A Personal Perspective of MRM	D. Cleland	Project Management Journal	1994
	What It Takes to Be a Good Project Manager	B. Z. Posner	Project Management Journal	1987
	Influence of Project Concurrency on Project Outcomes	O. Hauptman and K. K. Hirji	IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management	1996
	Relationship Building: A Key Technical Skill	Cliff Vaughan	Project Management Journal	1999
	Project Management and the Worldwide Web	J. G. Questore	NA	1996
	Cultural Analysis in IS Planning & Management	Jeff Butterfield	Journal of Systems Management	1996
Cost	Benchmarking in Construction Industry	D. Fisher, S. Miertschin, and D. R. J. Pollock	Journal of Management in Engineering	1995
	Earned Value Reporting Earns Its Keep	R. Mahler and M. Mazina	Cost Engineering	1982
	Development of a Knowledge-Based Schedule Planning System	N. B. Yunus, D. L. Babcock, and C. O. Benjamin	Project Management Journal	1990
	Component-Based Work Breakdown Structure (CBWBS)	R. E. Luby, D. Peel, and W. Swahi	Project Management Journal	1995
	CPM Use in ENR Top 400 Contractors	A. Tavakoli and R. Riachi	Journal of Management in Engineering	1990
Human Resources	Human Resource Practices in Project Management	Bruno Fabi and Normand Petterson	International Journal of Project Management	1992
	Developing an Incentive Scheme for a Project	S. Globerson	Project Management Quarterly	1983
	Business Globalization—The Human Resource Management Aspect	Yehuda Baruch	Human Systems Management	1995
	Ethical Considerations in Merger and Acquisition Management: A Human Perspective	Anthony Buono and James Bowditch	SAM Advanced Management Journal	1990
	Human Resource Planning: A Business Necessity	Stanley Schrager and Chester Delaney	Information Systems Management	1995
	Reward and Recognition for Teams Managing Two Fits of Strategic Human Resource Management	Lloyd Baird and Ilan Meshoulam	Academy of Management Review	1988
Integration	Examples and Characteristics of Shared Project Models	M. Fischer and T. Froese	Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering	1996
	Mega Project Management: The Need for Support Systems	R. Venkatesan	ASCI Journal of Management	1983
	Enterprise-Wide Project Management	D. McFarlane	IIE Solutions	1993
	Intranet and Internet Tools for Project and Knowledge Management	M. Hoynalanmaa, R. Rahkonen, and H. Martikainen	NA	1998
	Product Design Teams: The Simultaneous Engineering Perspective	D. Cleland	Project Management Journal	1991
	Benefits and Pitfalls of Software for Project Management	J. Katzel	Plant Engineering	1999
Procurement	Materials Management: The Key to Successful Project Management	D. U. Kini	Journal of Management in Engineering	1999
	Demystifying the Local Agency Procurement & Selection Process for Professional Engineering Construction Services	E. A. Avila	Journal of Management in Engineering	1997
	Empowering the Construction Project Team	R. Newcombe	International Journal of Project Management	1996
	Web Management and Integrative Procurement Communications	A. M. Barry and S. Pascale	Project Management Journal	1999
	A Study of the Management and Procurement of Building Services Work	D. R. Shoesmith	Construction Management and Economics	1996
	Early Involvement of Purchasers Saves Time and Money	E. E. Scheuing, I. Wirth, and D. Antos	NA	1996
	Role of Procurement in Liabilities Management	R. D. Nicole	Nuclear Energy	1998
	Supply Chain Management: Developing Visible Design Rules across Organizations	NA	NA	NA
Quality	Setting and Meeting Requirements for Quality	A. W. Saarinen and M. A. Hobel	Journal of Management in Engineering	1990
	Assuring Success of the Total Quality Process through QITs	M. I. M. Sangrey	NA	1991
	Concurrent Management of Total Cost and Total Quality	B. R. McConachy	NA	1996
	Fabrication of Steels—A Designers Viewpoint	E. V. Lockney	NA	1988
	Project Controls and ISO 9000	D. G. Pellicena and G. J. Hill	NA	1994
	Importance of the Planning and Specification Phases of a CIM Project	R. Lawley	NA	1992
	Considering Quality in Management of Software-Based Development Projects	R. J. Redmill	Information and Software Technology	1990
	TU Electric Generating Division Fossil Construction Quality Management Program	C. C. Clark	NA	1991
Risk	Techniques for the Analysis of Risk in Major Projects	S. Baker, D. Ponniah, and S. Smith	Journal of Operational Research Society	1998
	Planning for Crises in Project Management	L. A. Mallak, H. A. J. Kurstedt, and G. A. Patzak	Project Management Journal	1997
	Empowerment vs. Risk Management	T. M. Williams	International Journal of Project Management	1997
	The Role of Project Risk in Determining Project Management Approach	J. Couillard	Project Management Journal	1995
	Risk-Management Infrastructures	T. M. Williams	International Journal of Project Management	1993
Scope	Scope Management Using Project Definition Rating Index	P. R. Dumont, G. E. Gibson, Jr., and J. R. Fish	Journal of Management in Engineering	1997
	Reengineering the Capital Development Process	Albert A. Badger, Donald R. Hall, and Joseph P. Murray	NA	1994
	Determinants of Construction Project Success	D. B. Ashley, C. S. Lurie, E. J. Jaselskis	Project Management Journal	1987
	Estimating?—Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow	Kul B. Uppal	Transactions of the American Association of Cost Engineers	39th Meeting
	Knowledge-Based Approach to Construction Project Control	J. E. Diekmann and H. Al Tabtabai	International Journal of Project Management	1992
Time	Cost and Schedule Control Integration, Issues and Needs	W. J. Rasdorf and O. Y. Abydayyeh	Journal of Construction Engineering and Management	1991
	Innovative Distributed Project Control Approach: A Case Study of Cassini	M. W. Hughes and R. E. Wilcox	Engineering Management Journal	1996
	The Role of Project Management in a Fast Response Organization	M. K. Starr	Journal of Engineering and Technology Management	1990
	Why Project Fail: The Effects of Ignoring the Obvious	M. W. Hughes	IIE Solutions	1986
	Computerized Inquiry-Feedback Knowledge Engineering System	J. K. Yates	NA	1992
	Development of a Knowledge-Based Schedule Planning System	N. B. Yunus, D. L. Babcock, and C. O. Benjamin	Project Management Journal	1990
	The Denver Airport: Managing a Mega Project	G. S. Evans, R. F. Haury, and G. M. Stricklin	Civil Engineering	1993