Section 5.7. Target PC-Oriented Markets

5.7. Target PC-Oriented Markets

Personal Computers

Sales of desktop computers are relatively flat year to year, but sales of notebook computers are increasing by about 20 percent per year. This growth is largely attributable to an increasing number of retail sales to consumers. As the consumer electronics industry strives to make its products "networkable" with PCs, PC makers are also developing products to support increasingly multimedia-orientedand networkedhome environments. Fueled by continued demand for notebook computers as well as consumer and corporate spending, worldwide PC sales in the third quarter of 2003 grew nearly 16 percent from 2002, about 5 percent above projections [13]. In September 2003, the market advisory firm IDC predicted that global PC shipments will grow by 8.8 percent, 7.2 percent, and 7.4 percent for 2005, 2006, and 2007, respectively [14].

Printers

Analysts agree that the popularity of digital cameras and the transmission of digital images over the Internet are the main drivers of printer sales, particularly high-quality inkjets. Although images may be sent electronically , users still need hard copies of those pictures, as well as Web pages and other information they find online. In addition to lower printer prices and better image quality, consumers will benefit from increasedprinter capabilities, including the ability to connect to 802.11 wireless networks at home and in the office. Printers also are becoming more capable of communicating directly with other devices, such as handhelds and digital cameras, rather than relying on PCs for connectivity [15].

Peripherals

Additional PC- related product categories, such as external or internal hard drives , will have increasing sales due to high demand from consumers who are developing their own multimedia content. These product categories are highly competitive, with vendors competing heavily with one another through the "coolest" features as well as by price. Because UWB solves both of these needs, it has very little resistance to overcome and will be integrated into products at a rapid rate. Also, because Wi-Fi and other wireless technologies have paved the way, UWB will likely have an even faster adoption rate.

Taking into consideration all of the preceding discussion, and assuming that UWB continues to garner huge industry momentum, ON World projects that UWB chip sets volume production will increase by a 175 percent CAGR to more than 260 million units shipped in 2009. This growth will continue until 2010, when UWB silicon shipments will reach more than 500 million units, for a market worth more than $2.6 billion at that time. Table 5-1 and Figure 5-4 illustrate this projection.

Table 5-1. Global UWB chip set units, 20042009 (millions of units)

5.8. UWB in Consumer Electronics Devices

Because UWB is capable of handling multiple streams of digital video and multiple HDTV streams with a quality level equivalent to a wired system (at short ranges), many vendors are focusing on multimedia streaming applications of UWB. Potential applications include the transfer of digital content between devices in different entertainment and computing clusters in the home, such as DVRs, set-top boxes, televisions , and PC peripherals. Consumer wireless entertainment is viewed as the first large growth area for ultra -wideband technology, making up at least 75 percent of total UWB unit shipments by 2007.

UWB is the only wireless technology that is capable of handling multiple streams of digital video, such as HDTV streams, with a quality level equivalent to a wired system. This will become increasingly important as the industry shifts to HDTV and MPEG2-HD formats over the next four years when consumers demand wireless products to keep their home theater systems uncluttered and easily reconfigured/repositioned. Wireless displays will also be a key target market, especially as consumers continue to demand larger displays.

UWB will give consumers the freedom to move the display or hang it on a wall without large cables to connect it to the set-top box or DVD player; wireless displays will still require a power cable, however. So far, with HDTV and MPEG2-HD formats so large, there have not been any technologies available to wirelessly stream that much data. Now with UWB, large-screen wireless displays will become a reality and will likely drive adoption. Based on ON World's market projection, there will be 150 million chip sets shipped in 2009 for consumer electronics devices, up from 2.8 million in 2005, a 170 percent CAGR. About 60 percent of these, or 90 million chip sets, will be for mobile consumer electronics products such as digital cameras , camcorders, digital audio players, and game consoles. The remaining 40 percent will be for fixed consumer electronics devices such as digital TVs, DVD players/ recorders , set-top boxes, and stereos.