| What book about technology and futures would be complete without a section on predictions? Predictions are fun. They do not have to be right; just plausible and sensible given the discussions throughout the book. Here are some various predictions. Communications Global calendars. E-mail is pervasive partly because the foundation technology, SMTP (Simple Mail Transport Protocol) is pervasive, and every e-mail package in the universe knows how to speak that language. We will soon see a similar widespread (likely de facto) standard for calendar coordinating, and it will span from business executives to kindergartners. A universal set of protocols will emerge that allow various calendars to blend down (or render) to views that are suitable for any schedulable event. No longer will we fumble at the dentist office for a pocket daytimer; rather, the dentist will have access to your calendar and correctly know what times truly are amenable to you. Should you rearrange events, even at the last minute, updates throughout your life will automatically be made aware. We will be connected at a grand level and yet not sacrifice privacy (we hope). Personal communication. The move toward always-available communication is occurring swiftly. Unlike the slow (but steady) adoption of cell phones through the 1990s (from business users to eventually everyone), the move toward always-reachable communication will be more rapid. The value of nonverbal, immediate, yet asynchronous communication such as text and objects (pictures, songs, directions, purchase orders, etc.) is now understood by business professionals as well as the general population. The importance of being able to reach our children or business associates and in a nonintrusive yet quick way will drive this change even further. The values realized will be higher safety, personal efficiency, and business productivity. By 2007, every cell-type device sold will be biased toward data communications (text and objects) because you will less frequently "call" someone compared to text messaging them. Case in point: AT&T's new cell phone that is text-only. Singular device. Our cell phones will truly become our wallets and "jack knives." By 2007, they will perform all of the following: MP3 device (both downloaded and streaming style), e-mail and text messaging, GPS to both provide our location info and guide us to destinations, RFID reading capable to allow for in-store/on-location product details, replacement for both video and cameras, oh, and of course, still voice-capable. We further expect them to be an authentication device soon after, for both in-store purchases as well as security for access to buildings, homes, and vehicles.
Entertainment Sports. Sports events have always held an important position for both entertainment and diversion from life-pressing problems. Entertainment, such as movies and plays and dinner, will blur with sports. All entertainment will be more interactive and under our control, whether we are at the local high school production of Annie or at the final game of the World Series. Our PDA-type devices will be integral to our sports experience, and we will look for deeper ways to be part of the action. Dining out. We may order our dinners at a restaurant via a tablet-based interface (or more drinks), but we will still cherish the interaction with the waiter (on our own terms). We may interact with the restaurant chef's kitchen prior to the evening and tune our selection. In general, our desire to dine out will increase (given all that new work flexibility) coupled with our ever-busy personal lives allowing for less cooking time (and the accompanying aggravation). Essentially, we will outsource our meals to those who can provide the correct quality and health at efficient prices.
Money Cashless society. The acceptance of bank cards and other plastic or wireless devices may finally spell the end to cash transactions. Retail stores will begin to charge a premium if paying by cash, much like airlines now charge for purchasing a ticket through an agent or on the phone versus via the Web. Cash in retail has an annoying theft risk, introduces float losses, and very often means consumers are more frugal with their purchases. Consumers will become more and more comfortable with using noncash methods because their trust in Internet and other purchase styles (gas station pumps and so on) has matured. Retailers will relish the level of detailed transactions they will have for all purchases. Low-cost cards will emerge, somewhat like phone cards, that allow parents to provide money to a child's card stretching the reach of this new trend. (Most public school lunch systems no longer use cash in favor of use a form of debit card for a variety of reasonsnotably, ensuring all children can eat by preventing theft from bullying.) Single-key society. We will move toward a society that wants a single physical device as means of payment and "activation" at purchase or use locations. Whether it is a single credit/debit card or a cell phone/PDA, a single device allows consumers to simplify their lives. The device quite likely will also be used for activating a car, unlocking car and home doors, and entry into office buildings (for those that even go to the office), and very likely will require the user to enter a code. Quite possibly also require some biometric such as fingerprint or eye scan. Thus, it is 1) something you posses (the device), 2) something you know (the code), and 3) something that identifies youthe holy trinity of security. Single bill, no bill. We are rapidly moving to a society that loves electronic banking and is automating as many billing transactions as we can. Instead of automating bill payment, it will be observed that it is far simpler to have all suppliers of our consumer goods have an on-file billing target (credit or bank cardmany do this today). If you had everything billed to your MasterCard, and your MasterCard was supplied by one of the three remaining world banks, which was your bank, new efficiencies are realized. You may never have to pay a bill again (so to speak).
Home and Life Home automation. Our major home appliances will all be wireless-enabled by 2008. The cost of WiFi or similar technology will become insignificant compared to a $500 or $1,500 appliance. Consumers will initially value the remote-control capabilities (controlling HVAC systems or ovens from soccer fields or while at work) and later appreciate RFID capabilities once products proliferate with such tags. Manufacturers will derive far higher "usage" data that will in turn allow them to better match features to customers (e.g., how many times is the "gentle" cycle run? How often is the device used in the winter or after 6 P.M.? etc.). Given increasingly robust levels of networking, some appliances may even start appearing with rudimentary robotic/mechanical interfaces. For example, an innovative washer-dryer combination could be mechanically linked to avoid the need for human transfer. The washer itself could be fed by the laundry chute that separates whites from colors (either by RFID tag or visual/camera sensed) by a simple deflector. Refrigerators with cooking apparatus built-in (or vice versa) will similarly be more useful. Location crazy. We are heading toward fully understanding where everyone is at all times geographically, and desiring to know immediately how to get wherever we want to go. No longer will we require an in-car navigation system. It will be part of our everywhere-network (PDA, cell). It will not only tell us were to go based on just addresses, but also how to get to a particular office cube in a large building or a particular store in the super mall. It will not be a specialty add-on of cell phones or cars or buses; it will be built in to everything we care about. Our prized positions such as expensive hospital equipment or designer jeans will be somehow announcing themselves to something that can transmit location information. We will become location crazy. Work@home. Of the 80 million "information workers" in the United States, 50 percent will be working from home by 2010 and have no assigned office "cube" anywhere. This will continue to be driven equally by the new generation of workers who value improved home quality of life higher than any earlier generation and by employers seeking to gain more work hours out of the work force while saving on fixed costs. The effectiveness of remote work will be greatly enhanced by the changes in "personal communication" (being more reachable) as well as in new generations of groupware/virtual officeware. The changes will bring back the important attributes of happenstance, community, impromptu sharing, and yet maintain accepted social-hierarchy protocols.
Work and Business Momentary enterprise. We will see sizable businesses (based on yearly revenue) come and go at alarming speeds. No longer will a business be measured by its staying power. Instead, businesses will be instantly created to capitalize on whatever important trend or desire is happening in the wider community. Energy will not be required for establishing the brick-and-mortar or all the billing and accounting systems or the transport or supply systems. Such commodities will be expertly and automatically leveraged by super-deep, business-to-business automation, and new enterprises will start up focusing all of their energy on their differentiating value. They will be willing to be short-lived (measure in months or a short number of years) and allowed to exit as rapidly and with nearly no cost. Investors and consumers win. Matrix workers. As more and more people allow their skills to be better published and exploited, a new form of professional, the modern consultant, will emerge. He or she may work for a large company that routinely has suitable assignments lined up, or he/she may be part of a larger fabric of remote workers. Many of us will be matrixed among many employers, even some competing ones. Office space. Nearly 50 percent of today's office workers will work entirely at home and likely have improved home lives in spite of working more total hours. The office space will not go unused. Our need for socialization still exists, and office space will be converted into specialized retail locations, city short-term dwellings for lonely suburbanites, and, of course, more restaurants (one of the last vestiges that the virtual world can not eliminate). Manufacturing. Improvements throughout manufacturing will be so significant that by 2010, it will no longer be more efficient to manufacture high-volume products offshore. Manufacturing will swing back in the direction of home country because the value of having real-time customized manufacturing closer to the buyer will be affordable. Labor costs will be more than offset by significant advances in video-controlled production and inspection plus additional automation and interbusiness efficiencies. Notoriously long cycle times such as in the apparel business will be reduced from 9 months down to days, largely as a result of avoiding transocean voyages and all the accompanying Muda. Consumers will want to customize their appliances, durable goods, and fashion items, and yet not incur any delay in receiving those goods.
Miscellaneous Data protection. We will lose the word backup from our vocabulary, for business and personal computer needs. We will not worry about protecting our important data. The "network" and our service providers will ensure that our data is available from multiple sources and in multiple instances (in case we need to go back in time). The network will be our storage and storage will be something that only the network providers worry about (much like how you no longer save your paper bank statements any longer). Miniature everything. We will see computing power and data storage dash to levels never thought useful. Data will be collected by every conceivable device that has the lifeblood of just a trickle of energy. The data will be stored and digested and rebroadcast to a variety of nearby devices in case they can make use of it. This insane level of density and miniaturization will allow intelligence and "power" to invade most everything we touch. (Computerized tennis racquets will be pale in comparison.) RFID. RFID will steadily creep into our lives, but probably not with a single-year explosion. It will take time, but by 2010, most every consumer item from cereal to clothes to electronics will come with RFID tags built in. Today, we have to pick up something and look for a printed panel for a manufacture and model number, whereas in 2010, we will "wand" the device with our cell phone to learn of its details. Home automation and personal shopping experiences will greatly improve, as we will experience reduced shrinkage and better customer behavior/understanding on the part of retailers. Medical records. By 2010, we will have our own DNA sequenced and carry the electronic code with us (or referenced to some electronic repository). Furthermore, researchers will have Internet access to millions of other's DNA codes and medical histories, depersonalized, allowing them to discover important correlations. In 2010, all of our medical records ranging from the dentist to our heart specialist will be stored in a single common repository managed by our HMO, but we will retain control over who has access to individual components.
|
