Adverse Selection, Child Predators, Dictators, and Presidents

Organizations that work with children need to be especially concerned about adverse selection. Only a very small percentage of the population sexually abuses children. Unfortunately, these abusers are attracted to jobs that allow them to interact with children. Consequently, organizations such as day care centers and elementary schools need to vigilantly screen out undesirables.

Undesirables are likely attracted to dictatorships as well as daycare centers. Those who most lust for power are often the ones who should be least trusted with it. Joseph Stalin became leader of the Soviet Empire only after crushing his enemies. Given that thugs ruled the new Soviet Empire, brutality was the only means by which anyone could have risen to the top. This meant, however, that the supreme leader of the early Soviet Empire would necessarily be a man comfortable killing for personal gain.

To gain power in a dictatorship, one must be willing to kill. It’s not surprising, therefore, that almost all dictators have been evil scum, for most dictators would never have risen to power if they had been nice. Adverse selection affects dictatorships because those who are the worst for the people are often those best able to take power.

Adverse selection also explains why most revolutions go bad. The Russian, Chinese, and French revolutions all produced narcissistic, brutal governments. This should not be surprising, as all the revolutions started in blood. The only types of people capable of acquiring power in these revolutionary environments were people skilled at murder and betrayal.

Monarchies are usually superior to dictatorships because of adverse selection. A man born to be king is, on average, likely to be average, while adverse selection results in dictators usually being men of exceptionally low morality.

Americans consider George Washington to have been not just one of their best presidents, but also one of the greatest leaders the world has ever known, and adverse selection justifies this assessment. President Washington was a skilled general who used force of arms to expel the British. He had the strength and ruthlessness necessary to lead a colonial insurrection against what was then the world’s greatest power. George Washington, however, did not lust for power himself. Yes, he became President, but he respected the limitations on presidential power inscribed in the U.S. Constitution. Furthermore, he voluntarily chose not to seek a third term as president, even though he would almost certainly have won reelection. President Washington, therefore, had the personality that allowed him to both take and abdicate power. This combination has seldom been seen in world history. Usually the only men strong enough to take power through blood are men like Lenin, Mao, and Napoleon: men who do not give up spilling blood once they seize control. The unique success of the American Revolution is due to its escaping adverse selection.

Adverse selection is the reason that men seeking power often deny their desires. Bill Clinton had clearly wanted to be President his entire life. Yet when campaigning he often said he didn’t really want to be President and would have been happy staying in Arkansas. He claimed to be running only because the country needed him. Clinton recognized that the American people did not trust someone who lusted for power. Thus, he at least attempted to hide his ambition when he sought the presidency.