Jørgensen, M. "A Review of Studies on Expert Estimation of Software Development Effort." 2002. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the research on expert estimation approaches. The author draws numerous conclusions from the common research threads and presents 12 tips for achieving accurate expert estimates.
Humphrey, Watts S. A Discipline for Software Engineering. Reading, MA: Addison- Wesley, 1995. Humphrey lays out a detailed methodology by which developers can collect personal productivity data, compare their planned results to their actual results, and improve over time.
Stutzke, Richard D. Estimating Software-Intensive Systems. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Addison-Wesley, 2005. Chapter 5 of Stutzke's book discusses judgment-based estimation techniques and provides background on some of the math described in this chapter.