Framework for Science and Technology Development

In the next ten or twenty years, concentrated efforts from a number of disciplines are likely to bring greater unity to sciencea reflection of the unity of the natural world. This foundation will lead to the synergistic combination of four major provinces of science and technology, each of which is currently progressing at a rapid rate in connection with the others: (1) nanoscience and nanotechnology; (2) biotechnology and biomedicine, including genetic engineering; (3) information technology, including advanced computing and communications; (4) cognitive sciences, including cognitive neuroscience and systems approach concepts. Their synergistic integration from the nanoscale is expected to bring significant advances. Collectively, the convergence of these scientific and technological domains is here referred to as NBIC, shorthand for the various fields and subfields encompassed by the nano-, bio-, info-, and cogno- prefixes. NBIC convergence is using and interacting with the broad base of more established technologies.

With proper attention to ethical issues and societal needs, these converging technologies could lead to a tremendous improvement in human abilities, societal outcomes, U.S. productivity, and the quality of life. Six areas of relevance for human performance have been identified (Roco and Bainbridge 2003; Radnor and Strauss 2004) as most important: human cognition and communication, health and physical capabilities, group and societal outcomes (including new products and services), national security, science and education, and business and organizations.

The integration of NBIC tools is expected to lead to fundamentally new products and services, such as entirely new categories of materials, devices, and systems for use in manufacturing, construction, transportation, medicine, emerging technologies, and scientific research. Fundamental research will occur at the confluence of physics, chemistry, biology, mathematics, and engineering. Nanotechnology, biotechnology, and information technology will play an essential role in the research, design, and production of these new products and services.

Industries increasingly will use biological processes in manufacturing. Examples are pharmaceutical genomics; neuromorphic technology; regenerative medicine; biochips having complex functions; molecular systems having multi-scale architectures; electronic devices having three-dimensional, hierarchical architectures; software for realistic multiphenomena and multi-scale simulations; processes and systems phenomena from the basic principles at the nanoscale; new flight vehicles; and quantitative studies using large databases in social sciences. Cognitive sciences will provide better ways to design and use the new manufacturing processes, products, and services, as well as lead to new kinds of organizations.

Within the U.S. Government, the National Science Foundation (NSF), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Department of Defense (DoD), and the Department of Energy (DOE) already have several seed R&D projects in the area of converging technologies. These projects are based on unifying science and education, creating infrastructure for research at the confluence of two or more NBIC domains, developing neuromorphic engineering, improving human performance, advancing "learning how to learn," and preparing for the societal implications of converging technologies. Ethical and other societal implications must be addressed from the beginning of any major program. Industry involvement is evident in seed projects and in strategic R&D plans of several companies. User and civic group involvement is essential if we are to take advantage of the technology sooner and develop a complete picture of societal implications.

We need a systematic, deliberative, and responsible approach. This chapter briefly outlines the key areas of relevance to converging NBIC technologies, several trends, and current NBIC outcomes.

The Opportunity

Advancing a coherent approach for converging technologies with a focus on human potential, increased productivity, and revolutionary products and services is timely for five main reasons:

1. Accelerated human progress has become possible at the individual and collective levels. We have arrived at the moment when we can measure signals from, and interact with, human cells and the nervous system. We have also begun to replace or regenerate body parts as well as build machines and other products that are suitable for direct interaction with human tissue and the nervous system.

2. Unifying science based on the material unity at the nanoscale, and knowledge integration from that scale, will provide a new foundation for technological innovation and the development of humanities (philosophy, the arts, and so on). This implies the need to understand biosystems and changes in matter at their roots. Nanoscale concepts have been rejuvenated by new tools for measurement, control, and manipulation. The systems approach has been powered by advances in hierarchical architecture, mathematics, and information technology. The natural laws of interdependence were recognized by many ancient civilizations. However, because they lacked a coherent understanding of connections, the concepts were reflected only philosophically. More than five centuries ago, the leaders of the Renaissance saw "unity in nature," but this concept was followed by disciplinary specialization because of limited integrative knowledge. Only now can we begin to connect and integrate various disciplines and provide cause-and-effect explanations from the nanoscale to the macroscale, moving beyond the Renaissance ideal.

3. The accelerated rate and scale of changes in key technologies suggest the need for a fresh approach. The context for the development of new products and processes evolves rapidly. Several paradigm changes are expected in each of the four NBIC domains:

   • Nanotechnology is expected to move from its current focus on scientific discovery toward a focus on systematic design methods and technological innovation, leading to the development of manufacturing methods for mass production.

   • Biotechnology will move toward molecular medicine, nanosystems approaches, and pharmaceutical genomics, and biomaterials will be integrated at an increased rate in industrial products.

   • Information technology, in the quest for smallness and speed, will be enhanced by a focus on new architectures, three-dimensional design, functionality, and integration with application-driven developments in areas such as biosystems and knowledge-based technologies. A special opportunity will be created by the ability to analyze large, complex, hierarchical systems.

   • Cognitive sciences will focus on explaining the brain, the mind, and human behavior based on an understanding of physical, chemical, and biological processes at the level of the neuron, and from a systems approach. Increased attention will be given to humantechnology coevolution. Technologies based on large, hierarchical, dynamic, complex systems will address new opportunities such as quantitative social sciences.

4. Because of the significant impact of NBIC convergence, there is a need for anticipation ("learning before doing"), deliberate choices (for logical and democratic decisions), and precautionary measures (for unexpected consequences).

5. Science and technology are increasingly recognized as the main sources of overall human development (UNPD 2001; Greenspan 2001).

A new infrastructure based on the four NBIC research and development platforms will be necessary to create the products listed here. Ideally, this infrastructure must be available anywhere, on short notice, to any industry and all those interested. A broader range of R&D issues will be investigated. For example, R&D challenges in nanoscale engineering are as follows: three-dimensional architectures that incorporate materials, devices, systems, space, and time; directed assembling, patterning, and templating of heterogeneous nanosystems, multiphenomena, and multi-scale design; integration of nanoscale elements into larger scales; the creation and use of intermediary standard components; thermal and chemical stability of nanostructures; operational and environmental safety; and reliability and reproductivity at the nanoscale.

Criteria for Progress

To measure and better evaluate performance, it will be necessary to adopt new socioeconomic indices; one example is a modified GNP to incorporate changes in the human condition, to reflect the impact on the environment, to prepare the infrastructure (including education and training), and to measure other annual accumulations having societal implications. New holistic criteria may be considered for evaluating progress, such as reducing the entropy of a systemthat is, less energy dissipation per computation and transmission of information; less material, energy, water, and pollution in nanotechnology; and less change or degradation in biotechnology. New indices are necessary for recognizing accumulations in infrastructure, a better-educated workforce, more-productive tools, and knowledge creation during a time interval.