Nation-States - Will They Last?

Nation-States—Will They Last?

When we look back from the times of the caveman up to today, we often fail to realize that the entity we call the nation-state has a very short history of only several hundred years. Some, such as Davidson and Rees-Moog, believe

Something new is coming. Just as farming societies differed in kind from hunting-and-gathering bands, and industrial societies differed radically from feudal or yeoman agricultural systems, so the New World to come will mark a radical departure from anything seen before. . . .^[3]

Davidson and Rees-Moog, among others, believe that the "sovereign individual" will rise out of the nation-states. If what they say is true, then we all probably can agree that the nation-states will not go quietly. Just as individuals fight for survival, so will the nation-states. There are many rather recent examples such as the former Yugoslavia, the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, and Indonesia (East Timor and other conflicts for independence from this republic).

There will be those citizens, including ISSO professionals, whose patriotism and "love of country" will support the nation-states over their citizens. They will join with those in the government who do not want to lose power, as well as those corporations who find the power of the nation-states to be an effective and important ally in the competitive world of global business. Many, if not most, of these changes have been brought about by technology, and of course that includes the Internet.

The real issue is control. The Internet is too widespread to be easily dominated by any single government. By creating a seamless global-economic zone, anti-sovereign and unregulatable, the Internet calls into question the very idea of a nation-state. —John Perry Barlow.^[4]

The global changes will continue to affect, in a positive and negative manner, the interactions of nation-states, as well as their very existence.

Nation-states will be torn apart with ever-increasing chaos and rapid disintegration into factions. These factions try to build a "world consensus" in their favor to force governments to allow more freedom, as well as dissolving portions of these nation-states into smaller nation-states. The nation-states will justify their controls, government policies, etc. As was previously stated, the breakups of the Soviet Union and the old Yugoslavia are just two examples of what other nation-states may have to look forward to in the 21st century.

The economic domino effect that continues to take place throughout the world, for example, recession in Asia affects the Americas and Europe, validates the interlinking and interdependencies of nation-states. These dependencies will play a more crucial role in the global order. Economic espionage—the theft of information—will continue to grow in support of a nation-state's objective of becoming an economic power. The increasingly more sophisticated and more dangerous threats will offer the ISSO professionals some of their greatest challenges. Netspionage (network enabled espionage) is a relatively recent type of espionage and grows as global networks expand.

Asia's economic woes will ebb and flow. They will lessen and the Asian nation-states will gain renewed strength as the dominant, economic region of the world, which will be led by China. The financial and intellectual resources of Singapore (Chinese), the intellectual resources and technology of Taiwan (Chinese), integrated with the cheap labor and natural resources of mainland China, including the financial power of Hong Kong, will ensure the domination of "Chinese" as an Asian and global economic power that even today reaches beyond national borders. For example, it has been reported that in Indonesia alone, the Chinese make up only about 4% of the population but control more than 70% of Indonesia's wealth. Thus, the Chinese in Indonesia became a scapegoat for the Indonesian economic woes. Such ethnic violence due to religion and race will continue to grow on a global basis. Factions, ethnic groups, and religious groups will increase their presence and conflicts throughout the world, replacing some of the conflicts between nation-states as the world's biggest challenges. With more than 90% of the populations of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei being Muslims, not to mention the Middle East, they offer, as we have already observed, a growing terrorist faction as a very real threat. These terrorists will expand their targets to include major foreign corporations with the goal of damaging their adversaries' economic stability.

ISSOs must understand these terrorists' threats. Although many are now relegated to blowing up people and facilities—which include IEs—they are also beginning to look at targeting networks. What global networks does your corporation rely on? What will you do when a terrorist takes them out?

For an ISSO in a corporation with a global presence, the protection of the IE and its assets takes on a more critical role in helping the corporation compete in the global marketplace. Your corporation's IE assets may be at greater risk because of what happens in another part of the world. And with the ability of factions, groups, and nation-states to attack your corporate IE assets from anywhere in the world in a nanosecond, the challenges to the ISSO professionals will dramatically increase.

It is expected that the majority of nation-states' citizens will want the priority and the limited resources of law enforcement agencies to be spent on protecting the citizens from violent crimes such as terrorism. This will require more and more corporations to take care of themselves, especially in matters of white-collar crime, such as fraud against the corporation. As IE assets protection becomes more high-technology-based, the use of IE assets protection specialists will be called upon by corporate management. There will be an increased demand for IE assets protection specialists—consultants who can provide these services. IE assets protection consultants will be required to understand the global risks, including the risks posed by fraudsters, terrorists, hackers, Netspionage agents, and the like. This will increase the ability of InfoSec specialists to ply their trade. The focus will change from narrowingly focusing on technology solutions and more on holistic solutions, including eliminating the motive and rationale for attacks on systems.

Governments will continue to use Industrial Age legislative processes in vain attempts to "control" citizens of nation-states, including those portions of the Internet that affect their nation. They will continue to fail, although some small successes may occur here and there. The issue of privacy (or the lack thereof) will continue to be discussed on one hand, while other government agencies heighten their monitoring activities, for example, of the Internet. Unfortunately, privacy issues will continue to run contrary to the needs of businesses and government agencies; thus they will be given no more than lip service, so that businesses can grow uninhibited by personal privacy issues of the individual. At the same time, governments can maintain their power and control.

Such things as the United States' Homeland Security bureaucracy and Critical Information Infrastructure Protection bureaucracies are examples of using Industrial Age methods to solve Information Age problems. Such methods are too slow and will not work in the Information Age. Political appointees and not security professionals run them. Therefore, the ISSO can expect little in the way of government support for protecting corporate IW assets. As for such agencies as the FBI, well, they never were much help and now with the emphasis on terrorism, they will not be of any future help.

The ISSO professionals must help maintain the privacy of individuals if the citizens of the world are to maintain or increase their chances for opportunity and freedom.

^[3]Davidson and Rees-Moog, authors of The Sovereign Individual: Mastering the Transition to the Information Age, published by Simon & Schuster, New York, 1999.

^[4]John Perry Barlow, "Thinking Locally, Acting Globally," Time magazine, January 15, 1996, p. 57.