Market supply and demand


In 2000, China continued to take action to stimulate the market, and to promote increased rubber consumption. Moreover, the rapid rise of the international crude oil price led to a continuous increase in the price of synthetic rubber, which to a certain extent prevented the price from going down further, and instead caused a slight increase. With China's imminent entrance into the WTO, import limitations are gradually being removed, including decreases in customs duty and increases in import allocation. As a result, imports in 2000 remained at a high level. Influenced by various factors, rubber prices continued to fluctuate in 2000, lacking motive force to push the price up and at the same time having only limited scope for it to slip down.

On the whole, the domestic price of synthetic rubber showed a general upward tendency, with two exceptions. The price of BR fluctuated throughout the year around 7,400 yuan/ton, with 8 per cent being the biggest margin. The average price was 7,395 yuan/ton in 2000, an increase of 16 per cent over the previous year. Meanwhile, the price of SBR showed a distinct upward trend in the first half year, when the margin went as high as 2,000 yuan/ton, while in the second half of the year the price stabilised and the average price was 7,790 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 per cent compared with 1999.

In China, the tyre industry is the largest consumer of synthetic rubber. With improvements in tyre performance, prolonged lifetimes and the popularity of radial tyres, rubber consumption of tyres is decreasing . The average annual growth rate of rubber consumption for tyres is about 5 per cent, of which synthetic rubber consumption is expected to increase from 40 per cent to 45-48 per cent. The world consumption of synthetic rubber in total rubber consumption remains steady at 60-61 per cent. It is predicted that China will reach the same level in 15 years .

According to forecasts, output and consumption of synthetic rubber will show a strong upward trend. Authoritative predictions show that the average annual growth rate demand for SBR and BR will be 5 “7 per cent; for IIR, NBR (including hydro NBR) and EPR 8 “ 10 per cent; and for CR 2 “3 per cent.

Table 6.15.3: Output and plant capacity utilization of major synthetic rubbers in 2,000 tons

Product

1999

2000

2000/1999(%)

Utilisation

BR

273952

313,441

14.4

73.8

E-SBR

275,102

196,512

“28.6

54.6

S-SBR

13,898

9,060

“34.8

15.1

NBR

8,987

8,559

“4.8

29.5

SBS

88,023

133,586

51.8

148.4

CR

26,156

30,525

16.7

76.3

EPR

7,328

7,257

1

36.3

IR

 

4,055

 

13.5

Total

693,446

702,995

1.4 67.3

 
Table 6.15.4: Rubber consumption and forecasts of the Chinese rubber industry in China (thousand tons)
 

2000

2005

2010

2015

Tyre consumption

1000

1250

1600

2000

NR

580

650

850

1100

SR

420

600

750

900

SR proportion (%)

42

48

47

45

Non tyre consumption    

900

1100

1350

1700

NR

350

400

400

400

SR

550

700

950

1300

SR proportion (%)

61

63

70

76

Rubber industry total

1900

2350

2950

3700

NR

930

1050

1250

1500

SR

970

1300

1700

2200

SR proportion (%)

51

55

57

59




Doing Business with China
Doing Business with China
ISBN: 1905050089
EAN: 2147483647
Year: 2003
Pages: 648
Authors: Lord Brittan

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