Conclusion

Project risk management can make an important contribution to effective project management. However, there is substantial scope for improving project performance by developing a project uncertainty management paradigm that extends the scope of current project risk management. First, reduce reliance on PIMs and encourage an iterative learning approach to understanding uncertainty, more emphasis is needed on quantitative approaches that do not obscure variability. Second, more attention needs to be given to the identification and treatment of assumed operating conditions when developing estimates. KUUB uncertainties need to be allowed for at some level in the organization, as it is not efficient for KUUB factors to be considered only at project level. Third, we need to develop methods for articulating and comparing performance objectives and perceived trade-offs between them. Ambiguity in this area is a significant source of uncertainty and a major barrier to improving project performance. Explicit consideration of objectives and acceptable trade-offs are needed as a preliminary action to designing incentive schemes that encourage the generation and delivery of good luck, efficiency, and effectiveness, with the minimum of uncertainty.

The authors hope some of the uncertainty assessment ideas outlined here will stimulate others to put them to the test in practical applications and so contribute to the evolution of the paradigm as a whole.