Conclusions

The PRIMA method and toolkit represent a modular approach to risk analysis and management during the early phase of a project. The traditional approach, based on a point estimate of cost and value of the bid, leading to a final trade-off between these two aspects, is enriched by the analysis of the internal and external risks associated to the technical solution developed during the proposal preparation process, eventually arriving at a trade-off between the two aspects of risk. Such a trade-off process allows for a progressive joint adjustment of the bid profile and the project baseline constraints, respectively. This objective may be achieved by obtaining further information or implementing suitable risk mitigation policies. The availability of a RMCM, allowing for gathering, storing, and reusing information stemming from previous bids and projects, makes it possible first, to estimate and improve the forecasting capability of the company and second, to estimate and improve the degree of confidence on given target values of the project in terms of cost, time, and product performance. The feedback of experience consists of recording the risks, the methods used to deal with them, and their effectiveness.