4 BUILD IN CONTINGENCY

   

Use the First Law of Project Management to build in a margin for error

You have built a model of your project, either on your PC or on paper, and this model tells you how you believe your project will unfold once it gets on the road.

You could imagine, at this point, that you know things like the end date, the number of people required, the budget, and so on. However, you don't. The model you have created is exactly that: a model. It is a prediction of how the future may turn out.

Before you start making commitments based on the model you need to ask yourself one vital question. "What will I do if the model is wrong what will I do if it doesn't work out like I thought?"

A margin for error can be achieved by looking at the four parameters upon which the First Law of Project Management is based.

Just to remind ourselves , these are:

  • Functionality what is to be delivered

  • Delivery date when it is to be delivered

  • Effort the amount of work involved in delivering it

  • Quality the quality of what is delivered

The First Law of Project Management states that there is a function which connects these four variables , and that this function is a constant, i.e.

Function (functionality, delivery date, effort, quality) = Constant

Thus, if one of these variables changes, the others change so that the overall equation remains the same.

We are all familiar with this effect. Shorten the delivery date, for example, and (a) functionality must decrease, (b) effort must increase, or (c) quality must decrease.

Steps to take
  1. To achieve a margin for error and a fallback position, examine your project using these four parameters as a basis. You can examine your project at three different levels, each requiring progressively more effort on your part. These levels are:

    • overall (i.e. treating the entire project as one large job)

    • critical path jobs

    • all jobs.

    At each level, you examine the relevant job(s) and ask yourself the following questions:

    • What happens if the job runs over? (Elapsed time)

      Can the job be shortened ? (Elapsed time)

    • What happens if the job is bigger than we estimated? (Effort)

      What would be the effect of adding more people? (Effort)

    • Is this job doing something which is crucial to the project? If not, could it be put into a later delivery? (Functionality)

    • What happens if this job isn't done perfectly ? (Quality)

    Based on the answers you should modify the estimates of effort and/or elapsed time for some or all jobs.

  2. Alternatively, you could add in a figure of, say, 15 percent to cover contingency. Add this to all effort estimates and this will automatically be reflected in extended deadlines and delivery dates.

   


How To Run Successful Projects III. The Silver Bullet
How to Run Successful Projects III: The Silver Bullet (3rd Edition)
ISBN: 0201748061
EAN: 2147483647
Year: 2001
Pages: 176

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