Understand Where Technology Is

In technology planning, change is constant. This makes developing a 10-to 20-year mission that describes "how" impossible. For example, who had Java as part of their technology plan 10 years ago? No one. The Internet software language didn't exist. Now it's ubiquitous. However, not every technology will be as useful or as widely adopted as, say, Java. Therefore it is important to understand at what stage in their life cycle technologies are located.

GartnerGroup has developed the idea of the Hype Cycle to illustrate the stages within a technology's life cycle. There are five distinct phases, each corresponding to the following events:

1. Early adopters experiment with technology and identify new uses.

2. If one of those applications takes hold, the technology gains mass support. If not, it falls off the radar.

3. If it gains mass support, hype develops.

4. Technology does not live up to billing, resulting in disillusionment.

5. Practical technology application eventually emerges out of disillusionment.

A good example of this process is e-business. According to GartnerGroup, today we are in the "trough of disillusionment" - the post-hype stage - where fear and uncertainty obscure the technology's true value. Recognizing and placing the technologies you are considering within one of these stages may pay dividends, as it can help you time the implementation and rollout.