Nuclear Dilemma


As Figure 38 shows, prisoners’ dilemma might someday cause a nuclear holocaust. In this game there are two adversaries armed with nuclear missiles. The situation is volatile because each side has only a few missiles. If one side launches a surprise attack, it will be possible for this attacker to eliminate all of its enemy’s missiles. Therefore, the side that attacks first achieves victory, while its opponent suffers defeat. Imagine that a crisis arises between these two nations. The generals on both sides realize that the country to strike first wins. Each country would have a strong incentive to launch.

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Figure 38

In the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Empire, much thought was given to avoiding this nuclear dilemma. The United States spent massive sums of money developing a survivable deterrent by having a large number of missiles, many of which were in submarines hidden deep in the oceans, safe from Soviet attack. The United States always wanted the Soviets to believe that they could never win a nuclear war merely by striking first.

Currently, India and Pakistan are adversaries who both have nuclear missiles. Neither country appears to have a survivable deterrent. Consequently, generals in both nations might think that a surprise atomic attack could lead to victory. An atomic war between these two countries could kill far more than died in the Holocaust. What is truly terrifying about the prospects for such a war is that a general might order an attack not because he is evil and wants to kill his enemy; rather, he might launch his weapons because he fears his enemy will do the same. If both sides fear that their enemy might launch a surprise attack, then the fears of both sides become justified. Tragically, a rational response to the fear of being hit with a surprise attack is to attack your enemy first.




Game Theory at Work(c) How to Use Game Theory to Outthink and Outmaneuver Your Competition
Game Theory at Work(c) How to Use Game Theory to Outthink and Outmaneuver Your Competition
ISBN: N/A
EAN: N/A
Year: 2005
Pages: 260

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