Tool 86: Futures Wheel

AKA

Futuring, Action and Consequences Diagram

Classification

Analyzing/Trending (AT)

Tool description

The futures wheel is a tool used to forecast or predict trends in possible reactions to or associated consequences for an initial event, idea, or action taken. The consideration here is that every initial event may have several first-order consequences, they in turn may have second-order consequences, and so continue until a very detailed level of breakdown is achieved.

Typical application

• To identify possible reactions or consequences for proposed problem-solving or process-improvement ideas.

• To assess possible future impact on people or processes.

• To check that every issue has been considered prior to implementing an action plan.

• To avoid unpleasant surprises before future actions are taken.

Problem-solving phase

	Select and define problem or opportunity
→	Identify and analyze causes or potential change
→	Develop and plan possible solutions or change
→	Implement and evaluate solution or change
	Measure and report solution or change results
	Recognize and reward team efforts

Typically used by

	Research/statistics
1	Creativity/innovation
	Engineering
4	Project management
	Manufacturing
3	Marketing/sales
5	Administration/documentation
	Servicing/support
	Customer/quality metrics
2	Change management

links to other tools

before

• Reverse brainstorming

• Brainstorming

• Double Reversal

• Organization readiness chart

• Trend Analysis

after

• Action plan

• Mind Flow

• Rating Matrix

• Force field analysis (FFA)

• Process analysis

Notes and key points

Futures wheel symbolics:

Step-by-step procedure

• STEP 1 The team assembles around a whiteboard or two, side-by-side standing easels with flip charts.

• STEP 2 An event, idea, trend, or action is recorded inside a large circle, which is the initial event or step. See example Support a Work Ethic of TQM.

• STEP 3 The team now brainstorms possible first-order (1) consequences to the inital events. Circles are drawn and connected to the center circle.

• STEP 4 Next, circles are drawn for the second-order (2) consequences, connected with parallel lines to signify second order as seen in the example.

• STEP 5 The team completes this futures wheel and records all consequences.

• STEP 6 Finally, the team discusses the completed futures wheel and identifies all precautionary or preliminary action items that need attention before implementation to reduce the risk of unpleasant surprises.

• STEP 7 The futures wheel is checked and dated.

Example of tool application