What Does It Take to Get to a Coin Flip?

What project manager wants to start with a less-than-even chance of success? At the very least, we would like to get the chances up to 50/50 for our projects. So, using our pyramid model, what do we have to do to the base to increase the altitude?

Using units of sigma for our pyramid's altitude, I begin with a plan that gives us a starting point at the most probable outcome: at the distribution peak of 0.66 sigma. To get to a 50 percent probability of success, I need to accumulate half the area under the curve, which I know is at the 1 sigma point. So I need to go from 0.66 sigma to 1.0 sigma, which is an increase of 50 percent. That says I have to increase the altitude of the pyramid by a factor of 1.5, which means decreasing the area of the base by 1.5, or multiplying it by two-thirds.

In turn, this implies that I must multiply the lengths of sides of the square base by the square root of two-thirds, which is about 0.82. Therefore, to go from a naïve plan with only a 20 percent chance of success to a plan with a 50 percent chance of success, you must simultaneously

• Reduce scope by about 18 percent.

• Reduce quality standards by about 18 percent.

• Extend the schedule by about 18 percent (in other words, reduce speed by 18 percent).

• Apply about 18 percent more resources (in other words, reduce frugality by 18 percent) relative to what you had planned in the original scenario.

You could, of course, change each of these parameters by a somewhat different amount, as long as you reduced the area of the base by a third.

Let's call this new planthe one that gets us to a 50/50 footing"Plan B." I'll refer to the original, most likely, and somewhat naïve plan as "Plan A."