Tool 204: Tree Diagram

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Michalski W. J., King D. G.

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Tool 204: Tree Diagram

Tool description

A tree diagram systematically maps out the detail of smaller activities required to complete a project or reach a primary goal. This tool helps to break down the complexity by logically identifying lower levels of tasks or elements. As a planning tool, it reflects all necessary activities and supporting means to successfully implement a program.

Typical application

To logically branch out or flow down levels of detail of projects, problems, or primary goals.
To break down large activities or goals into smaller and specific tasks.

Problem-solving phase

	Select and define problem or opportunity
	Identify and analyze causes or potential change
	Develop and plan possible solutions or change
	Implement and evaluate solution or change
	Measure and report solution or change results
	Recognize and reward team efforts

Typically used by

	Research/statistics
	Creativity/innovation
	Engineering
2	Project management
	Manufacturing
	Marketing/sales
3	Administration/documentation
	Servicing/support
4	Customer/quality metrics
1	Change management

before

Affinity Diagram
Interrelationship Digraph (I.D.)
Systems Analysis Diagram
Symbolic Flowchart
Prioritization Matrix

after

Activity Network Diagram
Process Decision Program Chart
Matrix Diagram
Five Whys
What-If Analysis

Notes and key points

Numerical indexing example: Levels of detail.

Step-by-step procedure

STEP 1 First, determine the project, problem, or primary goal for the tree diagram. This is the first level of detail. See example Preliminary Planning for Six Sigma Quality .
STEP 2 Identify the major areas or activities that need to be considered and indicate these as branch headings for the second level of detail.
STEP 3 Continue to break down major areas (branches) into smaller tasks or elements, labeling each branch as shown. This is the third level, etc.
STEP 4 Continue this detailing as required to create lower level branches. At this point, if using the tree diagram as a problem-solving tool, start to identify and circle most likely causes of the problems.
STEP 5 Verify the tree diagram by retracing the branches to the lowest level, checking the logic and flow of activities, and subtasks of supporting elements.
STEP 6 Encode or designate each branch in accordance with the numbering schema shown in notes and key points . Date the diagram.

Example of tool application

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Tool 205: Trend Analysis

AKA

Time Series Analysis

Classification

Analyzing/Trending (AT)

Tool description

Trend analysis tool can project, on the basis of historical data segments, the increase or decrease of what is being measured for the next time segment. Trend analysis is simply comparing performance data and calculating a projection that, if undesirable, may require immediate attention.

Typical application

To project future time segment data on the basis of time-series calculations.
To analyze performance data trends over time.
To show directionality and variability in measured data.

Problem-solving phase

	Select and define problem or opportunity
	Identify and analyze causes or potential change
	Develop and plan possible solutions or change
	Implement and evaluate solution or change
	Measure and report solution or change results
	Recognize and reward team efforts

Typically used by

1	Research/statistics
	Creativity/innovation
3	Engineering
2	Project management
4	Manufacturing
	Marketing/sales
	Administration/documentation
	Servicing/support
5	Customer/quality metrics
	Change management

before

Data Collection Strategy
Checksheet
Observation
Line Chart
Timeline Chart

after

Starbursting
Action Plan
What-If Analysis
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Countermeasures Matrix

Notes and key points

Recommendation: Use at least nine time intervals of historical data to calculate the "next time interval" projection for costs, defects, time lost, time used, outputs, inventory, activities, events, or other performance measures.
Equations used to calculate a projection:
As calculated for the example shown:

Step-by-step procedure

STEP 1 As a preliminary step, the data collection process determines the specific performance data, the historical time period and number of time segments within, and the next time segment for which the projection is to be calculated.
STEP 2 An odd number of data scores (13 months in this example) is inserted into columns T and Y of the trend analysis worksheet. See example Projecting Total TQM Meeting Hours for February .
STEP 3 Column Y is multiplied by column X and the results inserted into column XY. Positive and negative totals are added, and the resultant total reflects the directionality of the trend. The respective values in column X ² (within the brackets) are also added.
STEP 4 The totals of all columns are used to calculate the average ( a ), the factor ( b ), and finally, the projection ( Y ') as shown in notes and key points .
STEP 5 A check is made by adding the factor ( b ) to the calculated average ( a ) in column P, as shown in this example. In this case, a repeated addition of 31 for each month (August-February) will result in a February projection of 882 as calculated with Y ' a + bt . Note: t = 7, the number of segments for this calculation (July–January) as seen in column T. Ensure that the median data score is always placed in the midpoint position of column T in the trend analysis worksheet.
STEP 6 All calculations are verified for accuracy; the trend analysis worksheet is dated and attached to a report.

Example of tool application

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Michalski W. J., King D. G.

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