P

Parkinson's Law, 21, 24

past projects, comparing to. See analogy, estimation by

percent confidence, 9

complex standard deviation formula, 122–124

pitfalls with, 126

simple standard deviation formula, 121–122

percentiles, standard components with, 140–141

personal memory, estimating from. See off-the-cuff estimates

personnel

attributes of executives, 259–260

education of nontechnical staff, 263

influence on estimates, 63

reducing estimation politics, 93–95

staffing constraints and schedule estimates, 230. See also project effort

PERT Formula for Estimating Number of Components (Equation #7), 139

PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique), 108–109

Pessimistic PERT Formula (Equation #2), 109

planning

breaking negotiation deadlocks, 267

estimating vs., 4

options for, calculating, 160

parameters for, 233–248

activity breakdown, 233–238

allocating time for activities, 238–239

cost estimates, 241

defect production and removal, 241–245

effort estimates, making practical, 239–241

risk and contingency buffers, 245–247, 251–252

various support needs, 247

reduced effectiveness from underestimation, 22

reestimation, 177–178

visibility of completion status, 27

what-if analysis, 160

plus-or-minus qualifiers, 251

politics, 259–270

attributes of executives, 259–260

avoiding with historical data, 93–95

influences on estimates, 260–263

negotiation and problem solving, 263–270

attributes of executives and, 259–260

estimates vs. commitments, 261

poorly estimated projects, 171, 176–177, 179. See also single-point estimates

precision, unwarranted, 51–52

predictability, as important, 29–30

preliminary commitment estimate (stage-gate processes), 186

presenting estimates, 249–257

assumption communication, 249–251

expressing uncertainty, 251–255

ranges, 256–257

pressure to create narrow ranges, 18

preventing bias. See bias and subjectivity

Price-S tool, 163

principled negotiation, 263–270

attributes of executives and, 259–260

estimates vs. commitments, 261

probabilistic project outcomes, 6–9

probability analysis, 158

problem solving, 263–270

process. See project control

producing defects, 241–245

Product Definition phase, 35. See also Cone of Uncertainty

commitment at, 40

estimation error from, 39

unstable project requirements, 42, 247

requirements omitted from estimates, 44–46, 110

software to account for, 160

productivity data, 208

products

delivery of

confidence factors, 252–254

evolutionary delivery, 79

promises of. See commitments

staged, 79

targets. See targets

functionality of

case-based estimates, 254, 255

classifying, 137

defect production and, 242

function-point estimation, 200–205

predictability of, 29

kinds of, 61–63, 236

quality of

accuracy estimates and, 27

defect production and removal, 241–245

Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) Formula (Equation #1), 109

program functionality

case-based estimates, 254, 255

classifying, 137

defect production and, 242

function-point estimation, 200–205

converting to LOC, 202–203

simplified techniques, 203–205

predictability of, 29

programming. See entries at development

programming language, influence on estimates, 64–65, 247

programs. See products

progress tracking

requirements changes and, 42

visibility of completion status, 27

project control, 11–14. See also tasks and responsibilities

activities overlooked in estimates, 44–46

chaotic development processes, 41

communication. See communication

reduced effectiveness from underestimation, 22

Student Syndrome, addressing, 23

unstable project requirements, 42, 247

requirements omitted from estimates, 44–46, 110

software to account for, 160

what-if analysis, 160

project data, 91, 99

project effort

allocating to various activities, 233–238

comparing estimates for, 218

computing, 210

estimating, 207–219

with fuzzy logic, 138

with industry average data, 210–216

influences on, 207–208

from project size, 209–210

software for, 158

practical considerations (ideal vs. planned), 239–241

tradeoffs with scheduling, 227, 228–230

project outcomes

Chaos Report (Standish Group), 24

diseconomies of scale, 56–61, 70

effort estimates, 208

modeling after historical data, 99

software to account for, 160

when unimportant, 60

kind of software (industry differences), 61, 236

nominal, defined, 8

organizational influences on, 92

personnel factors, 63

probabilistic, 6–9

programming languages and, 64–65

project size and. See project size

simulating, 157

project overruns. See late projects

project planning

breaking negotiation deadlocks, 267

estimating vs., 4

options for, calculating, 160

parameters for, 233–248

activity breakdown, 233–238

allocating time for activities, 238–239

cost estimates, 241

defect production and removal, 241–245

effort estimates, making practical, 239–241

risk and contingency buffers, 245–247, 251–252

various support needs, 247

reduced effectiveness from underestimation, 22

reestimation, 177–178

visibility of completion status, 27

what-if analysis, 160

project requirements

creating, effort for, 234, 239

Requirements Complete phase, 35, 39. See also Cone of Uncertainty

iterative development, 40–41

unstable (creeping), 42, 247

requirements omitted from estimates, 44–46, 110

software to account for, 160

project size, 25, 55–61

choosing as estimation technique, 78

collecting historical data on, 95

comparing similar projects, 129

counting and, 85

diseconomies of scale, 56–61, 70

effort estimates, 208

modeling after historical data, 99

software to account for, 160

when unimportant, 60

error density and, 242

estimating, 197–206

by function points, 200–205

with fuzzy logic, 136–138, 205

by LOC. See lines of code (LOC)

measures for, 197

standard components, 138–141

summary of techniques for, 205–206

estimating effort from, 209–210

estimation flow and (reestimating), 174

estimation software and, 162

schedule breakdown, 238

total effort and, 235

project tasks and responsibilities

allocating effort to, 233–238

checklists, 110

defect production estimates, 241

granularity of, 106, 116

overall best/worst case, creating, 120–126

overlooked in estimates, 44–46, 110

total effort breakdown, 235

promise to deliver. See commitments

proxy-based techniques, 135–147

fuzzy logic, 136–138, 205

standard components approach, 138–141

story points, 142–144, 205

t-shirt sizing, 145–146

public estimation review, 111, 149–150. See also structured expert judgment

with estimation software, 162

of project size, 205

sanity checking, 162, 271

with standardized estimation, 192