a year s forecast

a year's forecast

In the U.S., web traffic over the course of the year is surprisingly predictable assuming (and this is a big assumption) that your site's audience is increasing at roughly the same rate as the web. But even if your site isn't growing at all, you'll still see the same annual cycle play out.

Although it's hard to separate them, several key factors seem to affect seasonal traffic swings:

Seasonal traffic factors:

  • Climate. Web use increases during cold, wet winter months and decreases during warm summer months.

  • School schedule. Web use increases when schools are in session and declines during breaks and holidays.

  • Holidays. Web use declines over major holidays. In the U.S., the biggest decline sets in from Thanksgiving (late November) to New Year's Day, though retail and travel sites may see a surge of use during that same time period.

    The yearly forecast that follows is based on traffic to American sites. But other countries will see similar traffic patterns, if they share the same climate and major holidays.

    So ready or not, here they come: The January surge, the summer slump, the December dip.... Learn to love the web's traffic patterns, or at least live with them.

the january surge

This we know: January is a busy month on the web. Users flood back online after New Year's, producing record-high traffic levels. But we don't really know why.

No one can quite explain the January surge, since it doesn't happen in other media. (There's no noticeable increase in TV use or magazine sales in January. And it's a slow month for stores.) The leading theory is that the spike comes from new users, testing out the brand-new computers they received as holiday gifts. Another theory is that the increased use reflects the reinvigoration a getting-back-to-work that accompanies the end of the holidays and the start of the new year (or perhaps it's explained by the procrastination that inevitably accompanies this "reinvigoration?")

Whatever its cause, the January surge is cruel to sites that run ad banners, since it coincides with the seasonal dip in advertising dollars. As in other media, January is the weakest month for ad sales online. Most ad budgets are blown in November and December, in anticipation of the holidays. So when traffic on a site is strongest (January), the pages are worth the least. And when traffic is weakest (December), they're worth the most.

Ready or not, here they come: The January surge, the summer slump, the December dip.... Learn to love the web's traffic patterns, or at least to live with them.


Traffic drops off in February, but it will generally remain higher than it was the year before. And it continues to grow throughout the spring, with a possible dip in April for Spring Break.

the summer slump

And then comes summer, when nothing happens. Summers are stagnant online. Traffic levels across the web and at most individual sites remain unchanged from June to August. So if you've planned for steady month-to-month growth, just know you'll have a lot of catching up to do, come September.

Why doesn't traffic grow over the summer? That's an easy one. School's out, and the weather's great. Who wants to use your stinkin' web site when they can be at the beach? So go ahead and enjoy the summer yourself; there's very little you can do to break its spell.

autumn growth

In September, it's back to business as usual. Vacations end, schools reopen, and traffic takes off. Everyone breaks out their web browsers, along with their wool sweaters and corduroy pants. Throughout the fall, traffic should grow at a good clip. Until Thanksgiving, when everything goes to hell again.

the december dip

December will almost always be a weak month for non-retail, non-travel sites. Thanks to holiday parties, gift exchanges, and final exams, hardly anyone's surfing the web, unless they're shopping. Retail sites generally see a surge in both traffic and orders from Thanksgiving to Christmas. (If you don't, that's bad.)

So December offers two types of hell: Retail hell and Content hell. Retail Hell involves overloaded servers, back-ordered merchandise, unfulfilled orders, angry customers, and frazzled employees (unless the turn-out is disappointing, which results in a different variety of hell). Content Hell involves eager-beaver advertisers and sales reps, straining to meet quotas and failing to fulfill orders with the meager pageviews your audience is turning out.

So good luck to you. And hey, Happy Holidays.

exceptions to the rule

Although most sites see some seasonal fluctuation, they don't all follow these patterns. Travel sites peak with regional tourism seasons; religious sites peak with holidays (the timing of which depend on the religion). And baby sites will buzz year-round, because pregnancy knows no season.

Unusual circumstances can also overpower the normal, seasonal cycle. September 2001, for example, was no ordinary month. Web traffic went off the charts for several days after September 11th, but fell off precipitously for the rest of the month, as the U.S. (and the world) reeled from the disaster.

In fact, big news events always affect online traffic. Any time a big news story breaks, Internet traffic spikes not only on news sites, but across the web.

And of course, these seasonal patterns aren't the only factors that move the needle. Your site affects its own destiny as well. And any time you have a big promotion a sale, a popular article, national publicity you can expect a spike in your traffic logs. No matter what month it is.



The Unusually Useful Web Book
The Unusually Useful Web Book
ISBN: 0735712069
EAN: 2147483647
Year: 2006
Pages: 195
Authors: June Cohen

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